IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ijhplm/v34y2019i4pe1533-e1543.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end‐of‐life capacity and financial planning

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney P. Jones

Abstract

Planners, actuaries, and others involved in forecasting capacity and costs must manipulate historical data. Data from calendar/financial year totals have been assumed to be adequate and reliable. This relies on the assumption that year‐to‐year differences do not arise from patterns concealed in the data. While the seasonal cycle is widely recognized, longer term patterns such as disease outbreaks will act to modify annual demand and costs. Monthly data relating to deaths in local government areas in England and Wales are used to demonstrate curious semipermanent bursts of high behavior. There is no seasonal pattern for the start of these events, and the sudden switch to high deaths can occur at any time, even in immediately adjacent areas. Higher deaths and related demand and costs endure for around 12 months before they suddenly revert to the former level where they stay until the next of these curious high events. In England and Wales (and many other countries), a period of unexplained higher deaths, reduced life expectancy, and health care and life insurance costs since 2011 appears to be coming to an end and looks to have arisen from a coincidence of these events at sub‐national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney P. Jones, 2019. "The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end‐of‐life capacity and financial planning," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 1533-1543, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijhplm:v:34:y:2019:i:4:p:e1533-e1543
    DOI: 10.1002/hpm.2838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.2838
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hpm.2838?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonas Krämer & Jonas Schreyögg, 2019. "Demand-side determinants of rising hospital admissions in Germany: the role of ageing," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(5), pages 715-728, July.
    2. Willets, R. C., 2004. "The Cohort Effect: Insights and Explanations," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 833-877, October.
    3. Nicholas C. Grassly & Christophe Fraser & Geoffrey P. Garnett, 2005. "Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 417-421, January.
    4. Xaquin Castro Dopico & Marina Evangelou & Ricardo C. Ferreira & Hui Guo & Marcin L. Pekalski & Deborah J. Smyth & Nicholas Cooper & Oliver S. Burren & Anthony J. Fulford & Branwen J. Hennig & Andrew M, 2015. "Widespread seasonal gene expression reveals annual differences in human immunity and physiology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Murphy, 2010. "Detecting year‐of‐birth mortality patterns with limited data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 915-920, October.
    2. Eugenio Valdano & Davide Colombi & Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza, 2023. "Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Stephen Richards, 2010. "Author's response," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 920-924, October.
    4. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters & Man Chung Fung & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Stochastic Period and Cohort Effect State-Space Mortality Models Incorporating Demographic Factors via Probabilistic Robust Principal Components," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-77, July.
    5. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2010. "Pricing longevity risk with the parametric bootstrap: A maximum entropy approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 176-186, October.
    6. Milstein, Ricarda & Schreyögg, Jonas, 2024. "The end of an era? Activity-based funding based on diagnosis-related groups: A review of payment reforms in the inpatient sector in 10 high-income countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Paola Biffi & Gian Clemente, 2014. "Selecting stochastic mortality models for the Italian population," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 255-286, October.
    8. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2016. "Behavioral Origins of Epidemiological Bifurcations," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    9. Hunt, Andrew & Villegas, Andrés M., 2015. "Robustness and convergence in the Lee–Carter model with cohort effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 186-202.
    10. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    11. Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2011. "A dynamic parameterization modeling for the age-period-cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 155-174, September.
    12. Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497, June.
    13. Blake David & Cairns Andrew & Dowd Kevin, 2008. "The Birth of the Life Market," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, September.
    14. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Guy Coughlan & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2013. "The New Life Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 501-558, September.
    15. David Blake, 2018. "Longevity: a new asset class," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 278-300, September.
    16. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    17. Michael Stucki, 2021. "Factors related to the change in Swiss inpatient costs by disease: a 6-factor decomposition," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 195-221, March.
    18. Hunt, Andrew & Blake, David, 2015. "Modelling longevity bonds: Analysing the Swiss Re Kortis bond," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 12-29.
    19. Yahia Salhi & Stéphane Loisel, 2017. "Basis risk modelling: a co-integration based approach," Post-Print hal-00746859, HAL.
    20. Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013. "Syphilis Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 297-348, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ijhplm:v:34:y:2019:i:4:p:e1533-e1543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0749-6753 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.