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Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas L. T. Rohde

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Steve Olson
  • Joseph T. Chang

    (Yale University)

Abstract

If a common ancestor of all living humans is defined as an individual who is a genealogical ancestor of all present-day people, the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) for a randomly mating population would have lived in the very recent past1,2,3. However, the random mating model ignores essential aspects of population substructure, such as the tendency of individuals to choose mates from the same social group, and the relative isolation of geographically separated groups. Here we show that recent common ancestors also emerge from two models incorporating substantial population substructure. One model, designed for simplicity and theoretical insight, yields explicit mathematical results through a probabilistic analysis. A more elaborate second model, designed to capture historical population dynamics in a more realistic way, is analysed computationally through Monte Carlo simulations. These analyses suggest that the genealogies of all living humans overlap in remarkable ways in the recent past. In particular, the MRCA of all present-day humans lived just a few thousand years ago in these models. Moreover, among all individuals living more than just a few thousand years earlier than the MRCA, each present-day human has exactly the same set of genealogical ancestors.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas L. T. Rohde & Steve Olson & Joseph T. Chang, 2004. "Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans," Nature, Nature, vol. 431(7008), pages 562-566, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:431:y:2004:i:7008:d:10.1038_nature02842
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02842
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilton, Peter R. & Baduel, Pierre & Landon, Matthieu M. & Wakeley, John, 2017. "Population structure and coalescence in pedigrees: Comparisons to the structured coalescent and a framework for inference," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Gravel, Simon & Steel, Mike, 2015. "The existence and abundance of ghost ancestors in biparental populations," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 47-53.
    3. Severson, Alissa L. & Carmi, Shai & Rosenberg, Noah A., 2021. "Variance and limiting distribution of coalescence times in a diploid model of a consanguineous population," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 50-65.
    4. Matsen, Frederick A. & Evans, Steven N., 2008. "To what extent does genealogical ancestry imply genetic ancestry?," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 182-190.
    5. Kelleher, J. & Etheridge, A.M. & Véber, A. & Barton, N.H., 2016. "Spread of pedigree versus genetic ancestry in spatially distributed populations," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-12.

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