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Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution

Author

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  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (Imperial College London)

  • Alison P. Galvani

    (University of California)

  • Robin M. Bush

    (University of California)

Abstract

In pandemic and epidemic forms, influenza causes substantial, sometimes catastrophic, morbidity and mortality. Intense selection from the host immune system drives antigenic change in influenza A and B, resulting in continuous replacement of circulating strains with new variants able to re-infect hosts immune to earlier types. This ‘antigenic drift’1 often requires a new vaccine to be formulated before each annual epidemic. However, given the high transmissibility and mutation rate of influenza, the constancy of genetic diversity within lineages over time is paradoxical. Another enigma is the replacement of existing strains during a global pandemic caused by ‘antigenic shift’—the introduction of a new avian influenza A subtype into the human population1. Here we explore ecological and immunological factors underlying these patterns using a mathematical model capturing both realistic epidemiological dynamics and viral evolution at the sequence level. By matching model output to phylogenetic patterns seen in sequence data collected through global surveillance2, we find that short-lived strain-transcending immunity is essential to restrict viral diversity in the host population and thus to explain key aspects of drift and shift dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil M. Ferguson & Alison P. Galvani & Robin M. Bush, 2003. "Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 422(6930), pages 428-433, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:422:y:2003:i:6930:d:10.1038_nature01509
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01509
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer, 2018. "Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 371-387, May.
    2. Adam J Kucharski & Justin Lessler & Derek A T Cummings & Steven Riley, 2018. "Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Bethany L Dearlove & Simon D W Frost, 2015. "Measuring Asymmetry in Time-Stamped Phylogenies," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Levy, Nir & Iv, Michael & Yom-Tov, Elad, 2018. "Modeling influenza-like illnesses through composite compartmental models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 288-293.
    5. Ayako Suzuki & Kenji Mizumoto & Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov & Hiroshi Nishiura, 2019. "Interaction Among Influenza Viruses A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-10, October.
    6. David Fouchet & John O'Brien & Dominique Pontier, 2008. "Visiting Sick People: Is It Really Detrimental to Our Health?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(6), pages 1-8, June.
    7. Maliyoni, Milliward & Chirove, Faraimunashe & Gaff, Holly D. & Govinder, Keshlan S., 2019. "A stochastic epidemic model for the dynamics of two pathogens in a single tick population," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 75-90.
    8. Kucharski, Adam J. & Gog, Julia R., 2012. "Age profile of immunity to influenza: Effect of original antigenic sin," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 102-112.
    9. Pedro, S.A. & Rwezaura, H. & Mandipezar, A. & Tchuenche, J.M., 2021. "Qualitative Analysis of an influenza model with biomedical interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Rakowski, Franciszek & Gruziel, Magdalena & Bieniasz-Krzywiec, Łukasz & Radomski, Jan P., 2010. "Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland — a large scale, individual based model study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3149-3165.
    11. Chen, C.Y. & Ward, J.P. & Xie, W.B., 2019. "Modelling the outbreak of infectious disease following mutation from a non-transmissible strain," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Deka, Aniruddha & Bhattacharyya, Samit, 2022. "The effect of human vaccination behaviour on strain competition in an infectious disease: An imitation dynamic approach," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 62-76.

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