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Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Robert Gurney

    (Colorado State University)

  • Rachel M. Law

    (CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1)

  • A. Scott Denning

    (Colorado State University)

  • Peter J. Rayner

    (CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1)

  • David Baker

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Philippe Bousquet

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE))

  • Lori Bruhwiler

    (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

  • Yu-Han Chen

    (Atmospheric, and Planetary Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE))

  • Songmiao Fan

    (AOS Program, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, PO Box CN710)

  • Inez Y. Fung

    (Center for Atmospheric Sciences, McCone Hall, University of California)

  • Manuel Gloor

    (Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie)

  • Martin Heimann

    (Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie)

  • Kaz Higuchi

    (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)

  • Jasmin John

    (Center for Atmospheric Sciences, McCone Hall, University of California)

  • Takashi Maki

    (Quality Assurance Section, Japan Meteorological Agency)

  • Shamil Maksyutov

    (Institute for Global Change Research, Frontier Research System for Global Change)

  • Ken Masarie

    (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

  • Philippe Peylin

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE))

  • Michael Prather

    (Earth System Science, University of California)

  • Bernard C. Pak

    (Earth System Science, University of California)

  • James Randerson

    (California Institute of Technology, Mail Stop 100-23)

  • Jorge Sarmiento

    (AOS Program, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, PO Box CN710)

  • Shoichi Taguchi

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

  • Taro Takahashi

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Chiu-Wai Yuen

    (Max-Planck-Institut fur Biogeochemie)

Abstract

Information about regional carbon sources and sinks can be derived from variations in observed atmospheric CO2 concentrations via inverse modelling with atmospheric tracer transport models. A consensus has not yet been reached regarding the size and distribution of regional carbon fluxes obtained using this approach, partly owing to the use of several different atmospheric transport models1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we report estimates of surface–atmosphere CO2 fluxes from an intercomparison of atmospheric CO2 inversion models (the TransCom 3 project), which includes 16 transport models and model variants. We find an uptake of CO2 in the southern extratropical ocean less than that estimated from ocean measurements, a result that is not sensitive to transport models or methodological approaches. We also find a northern land carbon sink that is distributed relatively evenly among the continents of the Northern Hemisphere, but these results show some sensitivity to transport differences among models, especially in how they respond to seasonal terrestrial exchange of CO2. Overall, carbon fluxes integrated over latitudinal zones are strongly constrained by observations in the middle to high latitudes. Further significant constraints to our understanding of regional carbon fluxes will therefore require improvements in transport models and expansion of the CO2 observation network within the tropics.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Robert Gurney & Rachel M. Law & A. Scott Denning & Peter J. Rayner & David Baker & Philippe Bousquet & Lori Bruhwiler & Yu-Han Chen & Philippe Ciais & Songmiao Fan & Inez Y. Fung & Manuel Gloor , 2002. "Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6872), pages 626-630, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:415:y:2002:i:6872:d:10.1038_415626a
    DOI: 10.1038/415626a
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    Cited by:

    1. Lijun Xie & Zhongke Bai & Boyu Yang & Shuai Fu, 2022. "Simulation Analysis of Land-Use Pattern Evolution and Valuation of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage of Changzhi City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-31, August.
    2. Wei Wang & Junchen He & Huihui Feng & Zhili Jin, 2022. "High-Coverage Reconstruction of XCO 2 Using Multisource Satellite Remote Sensing Data in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Raupach, M.R. & Rayner, P.J. & Paget, M., 2010. "Regional variations in spatial structure of nightlights, population density and fossil-fuel CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4756-4764, September.
    4. YoungSeok Hwang & Jung-Sup Um & Stephan Schlüter, 2020. "Evaluating the Mutual Relationship between IPAT/Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based GOSAT Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Flux: Potential and Constraints in Utilizing Decomposed Variables," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Sihong Zhu & Robert J. Parker & Yi Liu, 2022. "Tropical methane emissions explain large fraction of recent changes in global atmospheric methane growth rate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Minkwang Cho & Hyun Mee Kim, 2022. "Effect of assimilating CO2 observations in the Korean Peninsula on the inverse modeling to estimate surface CO2 flux over Asia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.

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