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Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing

Author

Listed:
  • Drew T. Shindell

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University)

  • Ron L. Miller

    (Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University
    Columbia University)

  • Gavin A. Schmidt

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University)

  • Lionel Pandolfo

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century1, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation)2. Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise. The Arctic Oscillation trend is captured only in climate models that include a realistic representation of the stratosphere, while changes in ozone concentrations are not necessary to simulate the observed climate trends. The proper representation of stratospheric dynamics appears to be important to the attribution of climate change, at least on a broad regional scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Drew T. Shindell & Ron L. Miller & Gavin A. Schmidt & Lionel Pandolfo, 1999. "Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6735), pages 452-455, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:399:y:1999:i:6735:d:10.1038_20905
    DOI: 10.1038/20905
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaume Rosselló Nadal, 2009. "The impact of the NAO index on European Airline Transit," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/5, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    2. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Pauli, Francesco & Roson, Roberto, 2006. "Climate Change and Extreme Events: An Assessment of Economic," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12055, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Liu, Xiaohe & Buetre, Benjamin & Jian, Xu & Liu, Ping & Podbury, Troy, 2005. "Developing an input-output table of China for detailed agricultural policy analysis," Conference papers 331390, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Pauli, Francesco & Roson, Roberto, 2005. "Climate Change and Extreme Events: An Assessment of Economic Implications," Conference papers 331339, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Jessie Cherry & Heidi Cullen & Martin Visbeck & Arthur Small & Cintia Uvo, 2005. "Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Scandinavian Hydropower Production and Energy Markets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 673-691, December.

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