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Climate change and Australian wheat yield

Author

Listed:
  • David Godden

    (University of Sydney)

  • Robert Batterham

    (University of Sydney)

  • Ross Drynan

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract

Nicholls1 reported that 30-50% of the increase in Australian wheat yields in the period 1952-92 resulted from climate change. He estimated a simple linear relationship where a 1°C fall in diurnal temperature range increased Australian wheat yield by 0.52 t ha−1. This effect, taken with the trend in diurnal range, accounted for 45% of the yield increase between 1952 and 1992. In an extended model with three climate variables, Nicholls found that changes in minimum temperature had had most impact on wheat yield and that rainfall change had contributed little. In our view, Nicholls's results need qualification and should be interpreted with caution. They are only estimates, and do not include standard errors to indicate their precision.

Suggested Citation

  • David Godden & Robert Batterham & Ross Drynan, 1998. "Climate change and Australian wheat yield," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6666), pages 447-448, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:391:y:1998:i:6666:d:10.1038_35054
    DOI: 10.1038/35054
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Wang & Yu Hao & Jianpei Wang, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Change On China’S Rice Production — An Empirical Estimation Based On Panel Data (1979–2011) From China’S Main Rice-Producing Areas," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 535-553, June.
    2. Yifei Xu & Te Li & Min Xu & Ling Tan & Shuanghe Shen, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Effects on Winter Wheat Production in the 3H Plain: Insights from Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Projections," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, March.
    3. You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity:," EPTD discussion papers 143, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. M. Mehedi Hasan & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Mohammad Jakaria & Mahiuddin Alamgir, 2018. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals 2 (SDG2) and 6 (SDG6)," Discussion Papers Series 599, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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