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Efficacy of mitigation strategies for aquifer sustainability under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Chetan Sharma

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Hakan Başağaoğlu

    (Edwards Aquifer Authority)

  • Icen Yoosefdoost

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Adrienne Wootten

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Debarati Chakraborty-Reddy

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • F. Paul Bertetti

    (Edwards Aquifer Authority)

  • Ali Mirchi

    (Oklahoma State University)

  • Debaditya Chakraborty

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

Abstract

Groundwater systems play a pivotal role in ensuring food and water security while maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The depletion of numerous global aquifers, however, raises concerns regarding the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite efforts to mitigate this decline, there remains a striking gap in proving the effectiveness of these measures. Our research focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas to assess how effectively current mitigation strategies are protecting groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. Using counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the critical question: ‘What would have happened and may happen in the absence of the mitigation measures?’. This approach offers deep insights into both historical impacts and future projections under intermediate- and high-emission climate scenarios. By simulating what might have happened and could happen in the future without these mitigation measures, our approach provides a robust analysis of the real-world benefits of groundwater management strategies, highlighting their role in enhancing climate resilience and ensuring the sustainability of aquifers.

Suggested Citation

  • Chetan Sharma & Hakan Başağaoğlu & Icen Yoosefdoost & Adrienne Wootten & Debarati Chakraborty-Reddy & F. Paul Bertetti & Ali Mirchi & Debaditya Chakraborty, 2025. "Efficacy of mitigation strategies for aquifer sustainability under climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 44-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:8:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41893-024-01477-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01477-6
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