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Limited quantity and quality of steel supply in a zero-emission future

Author

Listed:
  • Takuma Watari

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    University of Cambridge
    University of Technology Sydney)

  • Sho Hata

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    University of Tokyo)

  • Kenichi Nakajima

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies
    University of Tokyo)

  • Keisuke Nansai

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Abstract

Achieving a zero-emission future depends greatly on how steel production is decarbonized within a limited time frame. Here we show that the production of zero-emission steel is possible but that the quantity and quality of steel may be limited by scrap downcycling. Using Japan as a case study, our analysis shows that most steel scrap is currently downcycled into construction materials, thereby limiting scrap-based steel to only 20% of the total steel used for automobiles, compared to 60% for buildings. Under a strict carbon budget, such downcycling practices could limit the production of steel used for automobiles to ~40% of current levels by 2050, even if production technology progresses according to the roadmap. The results indicate that steel users should not take the current level of steel supply for granted in a zero-emission future. Decarbonizing the steel sector, therefore, will depend not only on stand-alone efforts by the steel industry but on joint action with steel users to enable scrap upcycling and service provision with less steel use.

Suggested Citation

  • Takuma Watari & Sho Hata & Kenichi Nakajima & Keisuke Nansai, 2023. "Limited quantity and quality of steel supply in a zero-emission future," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 336-343, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:6:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1038_s41893-022-01025-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-01025-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Takuma Watari & André Cabrera Serrenho & Lukas Gast & Jonathan Cullen & Julian Allwood, 2023. "Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Mauricio Sánchez-Silva & Jack W. Baker, 2024. "Dynamic Infrastructure Systems: advancing sustainable urbanization and climate change," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 489-499, September.
    3. Hu, Hang & Yang, Lingzhi & Yang, Sheng & Zou, Yuchi & Wang, Shuai & Chen, Feng & Guo, Yufeng, 2024. "Development and assessment of an integrated wind energy system for green steelmaking based on electric arc furnace route," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    4. Xi Sun & Sophie M. Behr & Merve Kücük, 2024. "Enabling Circular Economy Dynamics in the Plastics and Steel Industries: Perspectives from Multiple Stakeholders," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2093, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Li, Chengzhe & Zhang, Libo & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Towards low-carbon steel: System dynamics simulation of policies impact on green hydrogen steelmaking in China and the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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