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The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew L. Fanning

    (University of Leeds
    Doughnut Economics Action Lab)

  • Daniel W. O’Neill

    (University of Leeds)

  • Jason Hickel

    (Autonomous University of Barcelona
    London School of Economics)

  • Nicolas Roux

    (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences)

Abstract

Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped ‘safe and just space’ framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32–55% to 50–66%, depending on the indicator. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate ‘business-as-usual’ projections to 2050, which suggest deep transformations are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to eliminate social shortfalls.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew L. Fanning & Daniel W. O’Neill & Jason Hickel & Nicolas Roux, 2022. "The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 26-36, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41893-021-00799-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olk, Christopher & Schneider, Colleen & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "How to pay for saving the world: Modern Monetary Theory for a degrowth transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Crelis F. Rammelt & Joyeeta Gupta & Diana Liverman & Joeri Scholtens & Daniel Ciobanu & Jesse F. Abrams & Xuemei Bai & Lauren Gifford & Christopher Gordon & Margot Hurlbert & Cristina Y. A. Inoue & Li, 2023. "Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 212-221, February.
    3. Marcantonio, Richard A., 2022. "Toxic diplomacy through environmental management: A necessary next step for environmental peacebuilding," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Bell, Karen & Hickel, Jason & Arbon, Rob & Zoomkawala, Huzaifa, 2023. "Which direction for sustainable development? A time series comparison of the impacts of redistributive versus market policies in Bolivia and South Korea," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125896, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Joachim Peter Tilsted & Anders Bjørn, 2023. "Green frontrunner or indebted culprit? Assessing Denmark’s climate targets in light of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Gomez-Baggethun, Erik, 2022. "Rethinking work for a just and sustainable future," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "Melancholy Hues: The Futility of Green Growth and Degrowth, and the Inevitability of Societal Collapse," IZA Discussion Papers 16139, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Naudé, Wim, 2024. "Entrepreneurship Is Dangerously Obsessed with Growth and Incompatible with Current Visions of a Post-growth Society," IZA Discussion Papers 17158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Andrew L. Fanning & Jason Hickel, 2023. "Compensation for atmospheric appropriation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 1077-1086, September.
    10. Dorn, Franziska & Maxand, Simone & Kneib, Thomas, 2024. "The nonlinear dependence of income inequality and carbon emissions: Potentials for a sustainable future," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "We Already Live in a Degrowth World, and We Do Not like It," IZA Discussion Papers 16191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Hickel, Jason & Sullivan, Dylan, 2024. "How much growth is required to achieve good lives for all? Insights from needs-based analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124460, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Fanning, Andrew L. & Hickel, Jason, 2023. "Compensation for atmospheric appropriation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119717, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Apostel, Arthur & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2022. "A one-off wealth tax for Belgium: Revenue potential, distributional impact, and environmental effects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Gómez-Alvarez Díaz, M. Rosario & Pérez León, Víctor Ernesto & Fuentes Saguar, Patricia, 2024. "How close are European countries to the doughnut-shaped safe and just space? Evidence from 26 EU countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    16. Hernández, Mauricio & Chávez-Bustamante, Felipe, 2024. "Sufficiency between producers and consumers: A configurational analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    17. Zhang, Yajuan & Wang, Zheng & Li, Shuangcheng, 2024. "Can a new power system help maintain planetary boundaries within a safe operating space?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    18. Tallgauer, Maximilian & Schank, Christoph, 2024. "Challenging the growth-prosperity Nexus: Redefining undergraduate economics education for the Anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

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