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Anticipating drought-related food security changes

Author

Listed:
  • P. Krishna Krishnamurthy R

    (UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability)

  • Joshua B. Fisher

    (Chapman University)

  • Richard J. Choularton

    (Tetra Tech ARD)

  • Peter M. Kareiva

    (UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability)

Abstract

Food insecurity early warning can provide time to mitigate unfolding crises; however, drought remains a large source of uncertainty. The challenge is to filter unclear or conflicting signals from various climatic and socio-economic variables and link them to food security outcomes. Integrating lag-1 autocorrelation diagnostics into remotely sensed observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and food prices, we found dramatic improvement in anticipating the timing and intensity of food crises, except in conflict settings. We analysed drought-induced food crises globally in the SMAP record (since 2015; approximately five per year). The change in soil moisture autocorrelation, which we term the Soil Moisture Auto-Regressive Threshold (SMART), signalled an accurate food security transition for all cases studied here (P

Suggested Citation

  • P. Krishna Krishnamurthy R & Joshua B. Fisher & Richard J. Choularton & Peter M. Kareiva, 2022. "Anticipating drought-related food security changes," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 956-964, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00962-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00962-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Backer, David & Billing, Trey, 2024. "Forecasting the prevalence of child acute malnutrition using environmental and conflict conditions as leading indicators," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Jiao, Yinying & Zhu, Guofeng & Meng, Gaojia & Lu, Siyu & Qiu, Dongdong & Lin, Xinrui & Li, Rui & Wang, Qinqin & Chen, Longhu & Zhao, Ling & Yang, Jiangwei & Sun, Niu, 2023. "Estimating non-productive water loss in irrigated farmland in arid oasis regions: Based on stable isotope data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    3. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Jia, Zhicheng & Ou, Chengming & Sun, Shoujiang & Sun, Ming & Zhao, Yihong & Li, Changran & Zhao, Shiqiang & Wang, Juan & Jia, Shangang & Mao, Peisheng, 2024. "Optimizing drip irrigation managements to improve alfalfa seed yield in semiarid region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).

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