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Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio E. Arias

    (Harvard University
    University of South Florida)

  • Fabio Farinosi

    (Harvard University
    Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
    European Commission)

  • Eunjee Lee

    (Harvard University
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Angela Livino

    (Harvard University
    Energy Research Office)

  • John Briscoe

    (Harvard University)

  • Paul R. Moorcroft

    (Harvard University
    Harvard University)

Abstract

The Amazon Basin is Brazil’s next frontier for hydropower, but alterations to the water cycle from climate change and deforestation could affect river flows fuelling electricity generation. This research investigated the effects of global and regional changes to the largest network of planned and existing dams within a single basin in the Amazon (the Tapajόs River), which altogether accounts for nearly 50% of the inventoried potential expansion in Brazil. Future hydrological conditions could delay the period of maximum daily generation by 22–29 d, worsening the mismatch between seasonal electricity supply and peak demand. Overall, climate change could decrease dry season hydropower potential by 430–312 GWh per month (−7.4 to −5.4%), while combined effects of deforestation could increase interannual variability from 548 to 713–926 GWh per month (+50% to +69%). Incorporating future change and coordinating dam operations should be a premise in energy planning that could help develop more resilient energy portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio E. Arias & Fabio Farinosi & Eunjee Lee & Angela Livino & John Briscoe & Paul R. Moorcroft, 2020. "Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 430-436, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:3:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-020-0492-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0492-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Flach, Rafaela & Abrahão, Gabriel & Bryant, Benjamin & Scarabello, Marluce & Soterroni, Aline C. & Ramos, Fernando M. & Valin, Hugo & Obersteiner, Michael & Cohn, Avery S., 2021. "Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Pedruzzi, Rizzieri & Silva, Allan Rodrigues & Soares dos Santos, Thalyta & Araujo, Allan Cavalcante & Cotta Weyll, Arthur Lúcide & Lago Kitagawa, Yasmin Kaore & Nunes da Silva Ramos, Diogo & Milani de, 2023. "Review of mapping analysis and complementarity between solar and wind energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2024. "The Environmental Costs of Political Interference: Evidence from Power Plants in the Amazon," SocArXiv 6y7vk, Center for Open Science.
    4. Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & Kamila Cunha Meneses & Pedro Antonio Lorençone & João Antonio Lorençone & Jose Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2023. "Climate classification by Thornthwaite (1948) humidity index in future scenarios for Maranhão State, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 855-878, January.
    5. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Caiado Couto, Lilia & Campos, Luiza C. & da Fonseca-Zang, Warde & Zang, Joachim & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2021. "Water, waste, energy and food nexus in Brazil: Identifying a resource interlinkage research agenda through a systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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