IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natsus/v3y2020i6d10.1038_s41893-020-0492-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio E. Arias

    (Harvard University
    University of South Florida)

  • Fabio Farinosi

    (Harvard University
    Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
    European Commission)

  • Eunjee Lee

    (Harvard University
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Angela Livino

    (Harvard University
    Energy Research Office)

  • John Briscoe

    (Harvard University)

  • Paul R. Moorcroft

    (Harvard University
    Harvard University)

Abstract

The Amazon Basin is Brazil’s next frontier for hydropower, but alterations to the water cycle from climate change and deforestation could affect river flows fuelling electricity generation. This research investigated the effects of global and regional changes to the largest network of planned and existing dams within a single basin in the Amazon (the Tapajόs River), which altogether accounts for nearly 50% of the inventoried potential expansion in Brazil. Future hydrological conditions could delay the period of maximum daily generation by 22–29 d, worsening the mismatch between seasonal electricity supply and peak demand. Overall, climate change could decrease dry season hydropower potential by 430–312 GWh per month (−7.4 to −5.4%), while combined effects of deforestation could increase interannual variability from 548 to 713–926 GWh per month (+50% to +69%). Incorporating future change and coordinating dam operations should be a premise in energy planning that could help develop more resilient energy portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio E. Arias & Fabio Farinosi & Eunjee Lee & Angela Livino & John Briscoe & Paul R. Moorcroft, 2020. "Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 430-436, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:3:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-020-0492-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0492-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0492-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41893-020-0492-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2024. "The Environmental Costs of Political Interference: Evidence from Power Plants in the Amazon," SocArXiv 6y7vk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & Kamila Cunha Meneses & Pedro Antonio Lorençone & João Antonio Lorençone & Jose Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2023. "Climate classification by Thornthwaite (1948) humidity index in future scenarios for Maranhão State, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 855-878, January.
    3. Flach, Rafaela & Abrahão, Gabriel & Bryant, Benjamin & Scarabello, Marluce & Soterroni, Aline C. & Ramos, Fernando M. & Valin, Hugo & Obersteiner, Michael & Cohn, Avery S., 2021. "Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Pedruzzi, Rizzieri & Silva, Allan Rodrigues & Soares dos Santos, Thalyta & Araujo, Allan Cavalcante & Cotta Weyll, Arthur Lúcide & Lago Kitagawa, Yasmin Kaore & Nunes da Silva Ramos, Diogo & Milani de, 2023. "Review of mapping analysis and complementarity between solar and wind energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Caiado Couto, Lilia & Campos, Luiza C. & da Fonseca-Zang, Warde & Zang, Joachim & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2021. "Water, waste, energy and food nexus in Brazil: Identifying a resource interlinkage research agenda through a systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:3:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-020-0492-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.