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Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Xuhui Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Chuang Zhao

    (Peking University)

  • Christoph Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Chenzhi Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Peking University
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Ivan Janssens

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Josep Peñuelas

    (CREAF
    CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB)

  • Senthold Asseng

    (University of Florida)

  • Tao Li

    (Applied GeoSolutions)

  • Joshua Elliott

    (University of Chicago)

  • Yao Huang

    (Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Laurent Li

    (IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (ST) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K−1), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K−1) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K−1). For wheat, ST was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K−1). Uncertainties associated with modelled ST were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling ST of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO2, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuhui Wang & Chuang Zhao & Christoph Müller & Chenzhi Wang & Philippe Ciais & Ivan Janssens & Josep Peñuelas & Senthold Asseng & Tao Li & Joshua Elliott & Yao Huang & Laurent Li & Shilong Piao, 2020. "Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 908-916, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:3:y:2020:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-020-0569-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Haifang & Lian, Yanhao & Zhao, Zhibo & Guo, Hui & Li, Zongzhen & Hu, Junjie & Ren, Yongzhe & Lin, Tongbao & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2024. "Compensatory effect of supplementary irrigation on winter wheat under warming conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    2. Gagné, Geneviève & Lorenzetti, François & Cogliastro, Alain & Rivest, David, 2022. "Soybean performance under moisture limitation in a temperate tree-based intercropping system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Fang, Chao & Song, Xin & Ye, Jian-Sheng & Yuan, Zi-Qiang & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Feng, Zhaozhong & Li, Feng-Min, 2023. "Enhanced soil water recovery and crop yield following conversion of 9-year-old leguminous pastures into croplands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Xi Chen & Chenyang Shuai & Ya Wu, 2023. "Global food stability and its socio‐economic determinants towards sustainable development goal 2 (Zero Hunger)," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1768-1780, June.
    5. Tianyi Zhang & Yong He & Ron DePauw & Zhenong Jin & David Garvin & Xu Yue & Weston Anderson & Tao Li & Xin Dong & Tao Zhang & Xiaoguang Yang, 2022. "Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Haowei Ni & Han Hu & Constantin M. Zohner & Weigen Huang & Ji Chen & Yishen Sun & Jixian Ding & Jizhong Zhou & Xiaoyuan Yan & Jiabao Zhang & Yuting Liang & Thomas W. Crowther, 2024. "Effects of winter soil warming on crop biomass carbon loss from organic matter degradation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Jialing Teng & Ruixing Hou & Jennifer A. J. Dungait & Guiyao Zhou & Yakov Kuzyakov & Jingbo Zhang & Jing Tian & Zhenling Cui & Fusuo Zhang & Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, 2024. "Conservation agriculture improves soil health and sustains crop yields after long-term warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Qiao, Shengchao & Harrison, Sandy P. & Prentice, I. Colin & Wang, Han, 2023. "Optimality-based modelling of wheat sowing dates globally," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

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