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Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences

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  • Adrian Rinscheid

    (Institute for Economy and the Environment, University of St.Gallen)

  • Rolf Wüstenhagen

    (Institute for Economy and the Environment, University of St.Gallen)

Abstract

Coal-fired power generation is the single most important source of carbon dioxide emissions in many countries, including Germany. A government commission recently proposed to phase out coal by 2038, which implies that the country will miss its 2020 climate target. On the basis of a choice experiment that assessed 31,744 hypothetical policy scenarios in a representative sample of German voters, we show that voters prefer a phase-out by 2025. They would uphold their support for greater climate ambition up to an additional cost to society of €8.5 billion. Voters in Rhineland and Lusatia, the country’s main coal regions, also support an earlier phase-out, but to a lesser extent than voters in other regions. By demonstrating that political decision-makers are more reluctant than voters in overcoming energy path dependence, our analysis calls for further research to explain the influence of particular stakeholders in slowing energy transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Rinscheid & Rolf Wüstenhagen, 2019. "Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 856-863, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:4:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1038_s41560-019-0460-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-019-0460-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamila Svobodova & John R. Owen & Deanna Kemp & Vítězslav Moudrý & Éléonore Lèbre & Martin Stringer & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2022. "Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Daniel Rosenbloom & Adrian Rinscheid, 2020. "Deliberate decline: An emerging frontier for the study and practice of decarbonization," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(6), November.
    4. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.
    5. Daniele Malerba, 2022. "The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1358-1382, June.
    6. Jindal, Abhinav & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2022. "Cost–benefit analysis of coal plant repurposing in developing countries: A case study of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2020. "Causality between CO2 Emissions and Stock Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.

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