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Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Demski

    (Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University)

  • Alexa Spence

    (Horizon Digital Economy Research/School of Psychology, University of Nottingham)

  • Nick Pidgeon

    (Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University)

Abstract

Understanding which energy future configurations provide publicly acceptable levels of energy security, affordability, and environmental protection is critical for institutional decision-making. However, little is known about how scenarios influence energy preferences. Here we present nationally representative UK data on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool that encourages engagement with the holistic complexities of system change. Engagement with the tool strengthened existing preferences for renewable energy and intentions to take personal action. Importantly, patterns of energy preferences were influenced by exemplar scenarios, which served as reference points that anchored choices. Carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, biofuels, and changes to heating and travel were particularly impacted by scenarios indicating uncertainty and ambivalence regarding these options. Scenarios (and scenario-building tools) are valuable for engaging citizens about future energy systems. However, care is required in their design and interpretation to reach robust conclusions about underlying preferences and acceptance.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Demski & Alexa Spence & Nick Pidgeon, 2017. "Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:2:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1038_nenergy.2017.27
    DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2017.27
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    Cited by:

    1. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "GHG emissions, trade balance, and carbon leakage: Insights from modeling thirty-one European decarbonization pathways towards 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Zhou, Yuekuan & Lund, Peter D., 2023. "Peer-to-peer energy sharing and trading of renewable energy in smart communities ─ trading pricing models, decision-making and agent-based collaboration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 177-193.
    3. Panagiotis Fragkos, 2021. "Assessing the Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in Mitigation Pathways of Developing Economies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Evensen, Darrick & Demski, Christina & Becker, Sarah & Pidgeon, Nick, 2018. "The relationship between justice and acceptance of energy transition costs in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 451-459.
    5. Abdulla, A. & Vaishnav, P. & Sergi, B. & Victor, D.G., 2019. "Limits to deployment of nuclear power for decarbonization: Insights from public opinion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1339-1346.
    6. Zhao, Ning & You, Fengqi, 2020. "Can renewable generation, energy storage and energy efficient technologies enable carbon neutral energy transition?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    7. Amanda D Boyd & Jiawei Liu & Jay D Hmielowski, 2019. "Public support for energy portfolios in Canada: How information about cost and national energy portfolios affect perceptions of energy systems," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(2), pages 322-340, March.
    8. Thomas Webler & Seth Tuler, 2021. "Four Decades of Public Participation in Risk Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 503-518, March.
    9. Jobin, Marilou & Siegrist, Michael, 2018. "We choose what we like – Affect as a driver of electricity portfolio choice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 736-747.
    10. McGookin, Connor & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Byrne, Edmond, 2021. "Participatory methods in energy system modelling and planning – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Alexane Dubois & Simona Holzer & Georgios Xexakis & Julia Cousse & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2019. "Informed Citizen Panels on the Swiss Electricity Mix 2035: Longer-Term Evolution of Citizen Preferences and Affect in Two Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    12. Goda Perlaviciute & Linda Steg & Nadja Contzen & Sabine Roeser & Nicole Huijts, 2018. "Emotional Responses to Energy Projects: Insights for Responsible Decision Making in a Sustainable Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-12, July.
    13. Roberts, Simon H. & Foran, Barney D. & Axon, Colin J. & Warr, Benjamin S. & Goddard, Nigel H., 2018. "Consequences of selecting technology pathways on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions for the United Kingdom," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 409-425.
    14. Yu, Wusheng & Clora, Francesco & Costa, Louis & Baudry, Gino, 2021. "Dietary Transitions As Climate Mitigation Measures in Europe: Implications of Supply-Side Responses and Trade Policy Regimes," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315912, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Dominic Balog‐Way & Katherine McComas & John Besley, 2020. "The Evolving Field of Risk Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2240-2262, November.
    16. Lukas Braunreiter & Michael Stauffacher & Yann Benedict Blumer, 2020. "How the public imagines the energy future: Exploring and clustering non-experts’ techno-economic expectations towards the future energy system," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.

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