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Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Author

Listed:
  • Anna B. Harper

    (University of Exeter)

  • Tom Powell

    (University of Exeter)

  • Peter M. Cox

    (University of Exeter)

  • Joanna House

    (University of Bristol)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (University of Exeter)

  • Stephen Sitch

    (University of Exeter)

  • Eleanor Burke

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Sarah E. Chadburn

    (University of Exeter
    University of Leeds)

  • William J. Collins

    (University of Reading)

  • Edward Comyn-Platt

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
    Utrecht University)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL))

  • Garry Hayman

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Eddy Robertson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
    Utrecht University)

  • Andy Wiltshire

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Christopher P. Webber

    (University of Reading)

  • Ana Bastos

    (Ludwig Maximilians University Munich
    Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Lena Boysen

    (Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Narayanappa Devaraju

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Atul K. Jain

    (University of Illinois)

  • Andreas Krause

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research—Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU))

  • Ben Poulter

    (NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab.)

  • Shijie Shu

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna B. Harper & Tom Powell & Peter M. Cox & Joanna House & Chris Huntingford & Timothy M. Lenton & Stephen Sitch & Eleanor Burke & Sarah E. Chadburn & William J. Collins & Edward Comyn-Platt & Vassil, 2018. "Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05340-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Aljoša Slameršak & Giorgos Kallis & Daniel W. O’Neill, 2022. "Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Selene Cobo & Ángel Galán-Martín & Victor Tulus & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2022. "Human and planetary health implications of negative emissions technologies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Upeksha Caldera & Christian Breyer, 2023. "Afforesting arid land with renewable electricity and desalination to mitigate climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 526-538, May.
    4. H. Damon Matthews & Kirsten Zickfeld & Alexander Koch & Amy Luers, 2023. "Accounting for the climate benefit of temporary carbon storage in nature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Vera, Ivan & Wicke, Birka & Lamers, Patrick & Cowie, Annette & Repo, Anna & Heukels, Bas & Zumpf, Colleen & Styles, David & Parish, Esther & Cherubini, Francesco & Berndes, Göran & Jager, Henriette & , 2022. "Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Giuntoli, J. & Barredo, J.I. & Avitabile, V. & Camia, A. & Cazzaniga, N.E. & Grassi, G. & Jasinevičius, G. & Jonsson, R. & Marelli, L. & Robert, N. & Agostini, A. & Mubareka, S., 2022. "The quest for sustainable forest bioenergy: win-win solutions for climate and biodiversity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Jennifer Morris & Angelo Gurgel & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon Kheshgi & Sergey Paltsev, 2024. "Mutual reinforcement of land-based carbon dioxide removal and international emissions trading in deep decarbonization scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Jingmeng Wang & Wei Li & Philippe Ciais & Laurent Z. X. Li & Jinfeng Chang & Daniel Goll & Thomas Gasser & Xiaomeng Huang & Narayanappa Devaraju & Olivier Boucher, 2021. "Global cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Zhao Li & Philippe Ciais & Jonathon S. Wright & Yong Wang & Shu Liu & Jingmeng Wang & Laurent Z. X. Li & Hui Lu & Xiaomeng Huang & Lei Zhu & Daniel S. Goll & Wei Li, 2023. "Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Yang, Xuhong & Jin, Xiaobin & Xue, Qiaofeng & Zhou, Yinkang, 2022. "Reconstruction of the spatial distribution of historical farmland in the Taiwan Province of China for 1659–1945," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Analysing the techno-economic impact of e-fuels and e-chemicals production for exports and carbon dioxide removal on the energy system of sunbelt countries – Case of Egypt," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    13. Emma A. R. Zuiderveen & Koen J. J. Kuipers & Carla Caldeira & Steef V. Hanssen & Mitchell K. Hulst & Melinda M. J. Jonge & Anestis Vlysidis & Rosalie Zelm & Serenella Sala & Mark A. J. Huijbregts, 2023. "The potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    14. Chali Nondo & Nicholas Odhiambo & Nyakundi Michieka & Richard Gearhart III, 2024. "The environmental tale of two countries: Determinants of CO2 emissions in South Africa and Australia," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2024(1), pages 193-217.
    15. K. S. Adamu & E. A. Christopher & S. Aliyu & A. Salihu & H. K. Sheriff & Y. Y. Arowosaye & R. Shaibu, 2023. "An Assessment of Climate Smart Approaches to Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gasses," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), vol. 8(9), pages 99-111, September.
    16. Lowe, R.J. & Drummond, P., 2022. "Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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