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Land-use change interacts with climate to determine elevational species redistribution

Author

Listed:
  • Fengyi Guo

    (The University of Hong Kong)

  • Jonathan Lenoir

    (Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

  • Timothy C. Bonebrake

    (The University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Climate change is driving global species redistribution with profound social and economic impacts. However, species movement is largely constrained by habitat availability and connectivity, of which the interaction effects with climate change remain largely unknown. Here we examine published data on 1464 elevational range shifts from 43 study sites to assess the confounding effect of land-use change on climate-driven species redistribution. We show that baseline forest cover and recent forest cover change are critical predictors in determining the magnitude of elevational range shifts. Forest loss positively interacts with baseline temperature conditions, such that forest loss in warmer regions tends to accelerate species’ upslope movement. Consequently, not only climate but also habitat loss stressors and, importantly, their synergistic effects matter in forecasting species elevational redistribution, especially in the tropics where both stressors will increase the risk of net lowland biotic attrition.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengyi Guo & Jonathan Lenoir & Timothy C. Bonebrake, 2018. "Land-use change interacts with climate to determine elevational species redistribution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03786-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03786-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Sajid Khan & Zishan Ahmad Wani & Rameez Ahmad & Kailash S. Gaira & Susheel Verma, 2024. "Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20355-20377, August.
    2. Kflay Gebrehiwot & Ermias Teferi & Zerihun Woldu & Mekbib Fekadu & Temesgen Desalegn & Sebsebe Demissew, 2021. "Dynamics and drivers of land cover change in the Afroalpine vegetation belt: Abune Yosef mountain range, Northern Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 10679-10701, July.
    3. Yue Wang & Ge Song & Wenying Li, 2021. "The Interaction Relationship between Land Use Patterns and Socioeconomic Factors Based on Wavelet Analysis: A Case Study of the Black Soil Region of Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Park, Junpyo, 2021. "The interplay of rock-paper-scissors competition and environments mediates species coexistence and intriguing dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    5. Zhang, Pengyi & Liang, Yu & Liu, Bo & Ma, Tianxiao & Wu, Mia M., 2023. "A coupled modelling framework for predicting tree species’ altitudinal migration velocity in montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).

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