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Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Su

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Jonathan H. Jiang

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • J. David Neelin

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • T. Janice Shen

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Chengxing Zhai

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Qing Yue

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Zhien Wang

    (University of Wyoming)

  • Lei Huang

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
    Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Yong-Sang Choi

    (Ewha Womans University)

  • Graeme L. Stephens

    (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

  • Yuk L. Yung

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & T. Janice Shen & Chengxing Zhai & Qing Yue & Zhien Wang & Lei Huang & Yong-Sang Choi & Graeme L. Stephens & Yuk L. Yung, 2017. "Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15771
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15771
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen A. Schiro & Hui Su & Fiaz Ahmed & Ni Dai & Clare E. Singer & Pierre Gentine & Gregory S. Elsaesser & Jonathan H. Jiang & Yong-Sang Choi & J. David Neelin, 2022. "Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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