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Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact

Author

Listed:
  • Bert Wuyts

    (Bristol Centre for Complexity Sciences, Bristol University
    Bristol University)

  • Alan R. Champneys

    (Bristol University)

  • Joanna I. House

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University)

Abstract

A bimodal distribution of tropical tree cover at intermediate precipitation levels has been presented as evidence of fire-induced bistability. Here we subdivide satellite vegetation data into those from human-unaffected areas and those from regions close to human-cultivated zones. Bimodality is found to be almost absent in the unaffected regions, whereas it is significantly enhanced close to cultivated zones. Assuming higher logging rates closer to cultivated zones and spatial diffusion of fire, our spatiotemporal mathematical model reproduces these patterns. Given a gradient of climatic and edaphic factors, rather than bistability there is a predictable spatial boundary, a Maxwell point, that separates regions where forest and savanna states are naturally selected. While bimodality can hence be explained by anthropogenic edge effects and natural spatial heterogeneity, a narrow range of bimodality remaining in the human-unaffected data indicates that there is still bistability, although on smaller scales than claimed previously.

Suggested Citation

  • Bert Wuyts & Alan R. Champneys & Joanna I. House, 2017. "Amazonian forest-savanna bistability and human impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15519
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15519
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    Cited by:

    1. Bert Wuyts & Alan R Champneys & Nicolas Verschueren & Jo I House, 2019. "Tropical tree cover in a heterogeneous environment: A reaction-diffusion model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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