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Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan D. Haigh

    (Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton
    School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia)

  • Thomas Wahl

    (Research Centre Siegen, University of Siegen
    College of Marine Science, University of South Florida)

  • Eelco J. Rohling

    (Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton
    Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University)

  • René M. Price

    (Florida International University)

  • Charitha B. Pattiaratchi

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia)

  • Francisco M. Calafat

    (National Oceanography Centre, Waterfront Campus, European Way)

  • Sönke Dangendorf

    (Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen)

Abstract

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan D. Haigh & Thomas Wahl & Eelco J. Rohling & René M. Price & Charitha B. Pattiaratchi & Francisco M. Calafat & Sönke Dangendorf, 2014. "Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-11, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms4635
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4635
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Meng & Zhang, Aidi & Zhang, Han & Pang, Yufei & Wang, Yueqi, 2022. "Multifractality of global sea level heights in the satellite altimeter-era," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    2. Shimelis B. Dessu & Rajendra Paudel & René M. Price & Stephen E. Davis, 2021. "Using empirical data and modeled scenarios of Everglades restoration to understand changes in coastal vulnerability to sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-24, October.

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