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Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate

Author

Listed:
  • Sean P. Maher

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
    Present address: Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA)

  • Andrew M. Kramer

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia)

  • J. Tomlin Pulliam

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia)

  • Marcus A. Zokan

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia)

  • Sarah E. Bowden

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia)

  • Heather D. Barton

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
    Present address: Department of Biology, Grove City College, Grove City, Pennsylvania 16127, USA)

  • Krisztian Magori

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia
    Present address: School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama 36849, USA)

  • John M. Drake

    (Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia)

Abstract

Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105–2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean P. Maher & Andrew M. Kramer & J. Tomlin Pulliam & Marcus A. Zokan & Sarah E. Bowden & Heather D. Barton & Krisztian Magori & John M. Drake, 2012. "Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:3:y:2012:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms2301
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms2301
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard P. Phillips & Leslie Brandt & P. David Polly & Patrick Zollner & Michael R. Saunders & Keith Clay & Louis Iverson & Songlin Fei, 2020. "An integrated assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Indiana forests," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1917-1931, December.

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