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Impact of six-month COVID-19 travel moratorium on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Author

Listed:
  • Dianna E. B. Hergott

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Carlos A. Guerra

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Guillermo A. García

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Jeremías Nzamío Mba Eyono

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Olivier T. Donfack

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Marcos Mbulito Iyanga

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Restituto Mba Nguema Avue

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Crisantos Nsue Abeso Nsegue

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Teresa Ayingono Ondo Mifumu

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Matilde Riloha Rivas

    (Ministry of Health and Social Welfare)

  • Wonder P. Phiri

    (Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project)

  • Sean C. Murphy

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington
    Seattle Children’s Hospital)

  • Brandon L. Guthrie

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • David L. Smith

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Jennifer E. Balkus

    (University of Washington
    Public Health-Seattle & King County)

Abstract

Importation of malaria infections is a suspected driver of sustained malaria prevalence on areas of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Quantifying the impact of imported infections is difficult because of the dynamic nature of the disease and complexity of designing a randomized trial. We leverage a six-month travel moratorium in and out of Bioko Island during the initial COVID-19 pandemic response to evaluate the contribution of imported infections to malaria prevalence on Bioko Island. Using a difference in differences design and data from island wide household surveys conducted before (2019) and after (2020) the travel moratorium, we compare the change in prevalence between areas of low historical travel to those with high historical travel. Here, we report that in the absence of a travel moratorium, the prevalence of infection in high travel areas was expected to be 9% higher than observed, highlighting the importance of control measures that target imported infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Dianna E. B. Hergott & Carlos A. Guerra & Guillermo A. García & Jeremías Nzamío Mba Eyono & Olivier T. Donfack & Marcos Mbulito Iyanga & Restituto Mba Nguema Avue & Crisantos Nsue Abeso Nsegue & Teres, 2024. "Impact of six-month COVID-19 travel moratorium on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52638-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52638-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos A. Guerra & Su Yun Kang & Daniel T. Citron & Dianna E. B. Hergott & Megan Perry & Jordan Smith & Wonder P. Phiri & José O. Osá Nfumu & Jeremías N. Mba Eyono & Katherine E. Battle & Harry S. Gib, 2019. "Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
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