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Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos A. Guerra

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • Su Yun Kang

    (University of Oxford)

  • Daniel T. Citron

    (University of Washington)

  • Dianna E. B. Hergott

    (University of Washington, Department of Epidemiology)

  • Megan Perry

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • Jordan Smith

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • Wonder P. Phiri

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • José O. Osá Nfumu

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • Jeremías N. Mba Eyono

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • Katherine E. Battle

    (University of Oxford)

  • Harry S. Gibson

    (University of Oxford)

  • Guillermo A. García

    (Medical Care Development International)

  • David L. Smith

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Guerra & Su Yun Kang & Daniel T. Citron & Dianna E. B. Hergott & Megan Perry & Jordan Smith & Wonder P. Phiri & José O. Osá Nfumu & Jeremías N. Mba Eyono & Katherine E. Battle & Harry S. Gib, 2019. "Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-10339-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10339-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Dianna E. B. Hergott & Carlos A. Guerra & Guillermo A. García & Jeremías Nzamío Mba Eyono & Olivier T. Donfack & Marcos Mbulito Iyanga & Restituto Mba Nguema Avue & Crisantos Nsue Abeso Nsegue & Teres, 2024. "Impact of six-month COVID-19 travel moratorium on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Tong Zhou & Xintao Liu & Zhen Qian & Haoxuan Chen & Fei Tao, 2019. "Dynamic Update and Monitoring of AOI Entrance via Spatiotemporal Clustering of Drop-Off Points," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-20, December.

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