IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-49688-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early warning of trends in commercial wildlife trade through novel machine-learning analysis of patent filing

Author

Listed:
  • A. Hinsley

    (University of Oxford
    Oxford Martin School)

  • D. W. S. Challender

    (University of Oxford
    Oxford Martin School)

  • S. Masters

    (Naturalis Biodiversity Centre)

  • D. W. Macdonald

    (University of Oxford)

  • E. J. Milner-Gulland

    (University of Oxford
    Oxford Martin School)

  • J. Fraser

    (University of Oxford
    Imperial College London)

  • J. Wright

    (Oxford Martin School
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

Unsustainable wildlife trade imperils thousands of species, but efforts to identify and reduce these threats are hampered by rapidly evolving commercial markets. Businesses trading wildlife-derived products innovate to remain competitive, and the patents they file to protect their innovations also provide an early-warning of market shifts. Here, we develop a novel machine-learning approach to analyse patent-filing trends and apply it to patents filed from 1970-2020 related to six traded taxa that vary in trade legality, threat level, and use type: rhinoceroses, pangolins, bears, sturgeon, horseshoe crabs, and caterpillar fungus. We found 27,308 patents, showing 130% per-year increases, compared to a background rate of 104%. Innovation led to diversification, including new fertilizer products using illegal-to-trade rhinoceros horn, and novel farming methods for pangolins. Stricter regulation did not generally correlate with reduced patenting. Patents reveal how wildlife-related businesses predict, adapt to, and create market shifts, providing data to underpin proactive wildlife-trade management approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Hinsley & D. W. S. Challender & S. Masters & D. W. Macdonald & E. J. Milner-Gulland & J. Fraser & J. Wright, 2024. "Early warning of trends in commercial wildlife trade through novel machine-learning analysis of patent filing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49688-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49688-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49688-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-49688-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vivienne L Williams & Michael J ‘t Sas-Rolfes, 2019. "Born captive: A survey of the lion breeding, keeping and hunting industries in South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-31, May.
    2. Lyons, Jessica A. & Natusch, Daniel J.D., 2013. "Effects of consumer preferences for rarity on the harvest of wild populations within a species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-283.
    3. Chen, Frederick, 2017. "The Economics of Synthetic Rhino Horns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 180-189.
    4. Benjamin M. Marshall & Colin Strine & Alice C. Hughes, 2020. "Thousands of reptile species threatened by under-regulated global trade," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Philippe Rivalan & Virginie Delmas & Elena Angulo & Leigh S. Bull & Richard J. Hall & Franck Courchamp & Alison M. Rosser & Nigel Leader-Williams, 2007. "Can bans stimulate wildlife trade?," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7144), pages 529-530, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rubino, Elena C. & Pienaar, Elizabeth F. & Soto, José R., 2018. "Structuring Legal Trade in Rhino Horn to Incentivize the Participation of South African Private Landowners," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 306-316.
    2. Sally E. Street & Jorge S. Gutiérrez & William L. Allen & Isabella Capellini, 2023. "Human activities favour prolific life histories in both traded and introduced vertebrates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Heid, Benedikt & Márquez-Ramos, Laura, 2023. "International environmental agreements and imperfect enforcement: Evidence from CITES," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Elena Angulo & Franck Courchamp, 2009. "Rare Species Are Valued Big Time," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-5, April.
    5. Rosaleen Duffy, 2013. "Global Environmental Governance and North—South Dynamics: The Case of the Cites," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 31(2), pages 222-239, April.
    6. Yiming Li & Tim M. Blackburn & Zexu Luo & Tianjian Song & Freyja Watters & Wenhao Li & Teng Deng & Zhenhua Luo & Yuanyi Li & Jiacong Du & Meiling Niu & Jun Zhang & Jinyu Zhang & Jiaxue Yang & Siqi Wan, 2023. "Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Timothy C Haas & Sam M Ferreira, 2016. "Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Simmons, B. Alexander & Law, Elizabeth A. & Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Bryan, Brett A. & McAlpine, Clive & Wilson, Kerrie A., 2018. "Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 399-410.
    9. Chen, Frederick & ’t Sas-Rolfes, Michael, 2021. "Theoretical analysis of a simple permit system for selling synthetic wildlife goods," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Kukrety, Sidhanand & Dwivedi, Puneet & Jose, Shibu & Alavalapati, Janaki R.R., 2013. "Stakeholders' perceptions on developing sustainable Red Sanders (Pterocarpus santalinus L.) wood trade in Andhra Pradesh, India," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 43-53.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49688-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.