IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-49070-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mathematical biases in the calculation of the Living Planet Index lead to overestimation of vertebrate population decline

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Toszogyova

    (CZ-110 00)

  • Jan Smyčka

    (CZ-110 00)

  • David Storch

    (CZ-110 00
    CZ-128 44)

Abstract

The Living Planet Index (LPI) measures the average change in population size of vertebrate species over recent decades and has been repeatedly used to assess the changing state of nature. The LPI indicates that vertebrate populations have decreased by almost 70% over the last 50 years. This is in striking contrast with current studies based on the same population time series data that show that increasing and decreasing populations are balanced on average. Here, we examine the methodological pipeline of calculating the LPI to search for the source of this discrepancy. We find that the calculation of the LPI is biased by several mathematical issues which impose an imbalance between detected increasing and decreasing trends and overestimate population declines. Rather than indicating that vertebrate populations do not substantially change, our findings imply that we need better measures for providing a balanced picture of current biodiversity changes. We also show some modifications to improve the reliability of the LPI.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Toszogyova & Jan Smyčka & David Storch, 2024. "Mathematical biases in the calculation of the Living Planet Index lead to overestimation of vertebrate population decline," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49070-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49070-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49070-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-49070-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikael Puurtinen & Merja Elo & Janne S. Kotiaho, 2022. "The Living Planet Index does not measure abundance," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7894), pages 14-15, January.
    2. Brian Leung & Anna L. Hargreaves & Dan A. Greenberg & Brian McGill & Maria Dornelas & Robin Freeman, 2022. "Reply to: The Living Planet Index does not measure abundance," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7894), pages 16-16, January.
    3. Gergana N. Daskalova & Isla H. Myers-Smith & John L. Godlee, 2020. "Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Brian Leung & Anna L. Hargreaves & Dan A. Greenberg & Brian McGill & Maria Dornelas & Robin Freeman, 2020. "Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7837), pages 267-271, December.
    5. Brian Leung & Anna L. Hargreaves & Dan A. Greenberg & Brian McGill & Maria Dornelas & Robin Freeman, 2022. "Reply to: Do not downplay biodiversity loss," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7894), pages 29-31, January.
    6. Michel Loreau & Bradley J. Cardinale & Forest Isbell & Tim Newbold & Mary I. O’Connor & Claire Mazancourt, 2022. "Do not downplay biodiversity loss," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7894), pages 27-28, January.
    7. Gopal Murali & Gabriel Henrique Oliveira Caetano & Goni Barki & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2022. "Emphasizing declining populations in the Living Planet Report," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7894), pages 20-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Millard, Joe, 2023. "Coining one currency for nature," OSF Preprints j7phu, Center for Open Science.
    2. Jessen V. Bredeson & Austin B. Mudd & Sofia Medina-Ruiz & Therese Mitros & Owen Kabnick Smith & Kelly E. Miller & Jessica B. Lyons & Sanjit S. Batra & Joseph Park & Kodiak C. Berkoff & Christopher Plo, 2024. "Conserved chromatin and repetitive patterns reveal slow genome evolution in frogs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Nguyen, Thanh-Tung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung & Nguyen, Duy Linh & Grote, Ulrike, 2022. "Shocks, agricultural productivity, and natural resource extraction in rural Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi & Amanda E. Bates & Giovanni Strona & Fabio Bulleri & Barbara Horta e Costa & Graham J. Edgar & Bernat Hereu & Dan C. Reed & Rick D. Stuart-Smith & Neville S. Barrett & David, 2024. "Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Wu-Bing Xu & Shane A. Blowes & Viviana Brambilla & Cher F. Y. Chow & Ada Fontrodona-Eslava & Inês S. Martins & Daniel McGlinn & Faye Moyes & Alban Sagouis & Hideyasu Shimadzu & Roel Klink & Anne E. Ma, 2023. "Regional occupancy increases for widespread species but decreases for narrowly distributed species in metacommunity time series," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Guiyuan Li & Zhanneng Wu & Guo Cheng & Yixiong Yuan & Yu He & Hechi Wang, 2023. "Research on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Relationship between Human Activity Intensity and Ecosystem Service Value in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
    7. C. A. Morrison & A. Auniņš & Z. Benkő & L. Brotons & T. Chodkiewicz & P. Chylarecki & V. Escandell & D. P. Eskildsen & A. Gamero & S. Herrando & F. Jiguet & J. A. Kålås & J. Kamp & A. Klvaňová & P. Km, 2021. "Bird population declines and species turnover are changing the acoustic properties of spring soundscapes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49070-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.