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Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline K. Glidden

    (Institute for Human-Centered AI
    Department of Biology)

  • Alyson L. Singleton

    (Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources)

  • Andrew Chamberlin

    (Hopkins Marine Station)

  • Roseli Tuan

    (Pasteur Institute)

  • Raquel G. S. Palasio

    (Pasteur Institute)

  • Roberta Lima Caldeira

    (Fiocruz Minas/Belo Horizonte)

  • Antônio Miguel V. Monteiro

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Kamazima M. M. Lwiza

    (Stony Brook)

  • Ping Liu

    (Stony Brook)

  • Vivian Silva

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Tejas S. Athni

    (Harvard Medical School)

  • Susanne H. Sokolow

    (Woods Institute for the Environment
    University of California)

  • Erin A. Mordecai

    (Institute for Human-Centered AI
    Department of Biology)

  • Giulio A. Leo

    (Hopkins Marine Station)

Abstract

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria and Bulinus snails, thus controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we used machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of forward-transmitting Biomphalaria hosts throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how Biomphalaria habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in Biomphalaria distribution—while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies—can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline K. Glidden & Alyson L. Singleton & Andrew Chamberlin & Roseli Tuan & Raquel G. S. Palasio & Roberta Lima Caldeira & Antônio Miguel V. Monteiro & Kamazima M. M. Lwiza & Ping Liu & Vivian Silva, 2024. "Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48335-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48335-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Kuhn, Max, 2008. "Building Predictive Models in R Using the caret Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 28(i05).
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