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Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo M. Salazar

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Alice Kamau

    (Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme)

  • Aurelien Cavelan

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Samuel Akech

    (Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme)

  • Arthur Mpimbaza

    (Makerere University)

  • Robert W. Snow

    (Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme
    University of Oxford)

  • Melissa A. Penny

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel
    Telethon Kids Institute
    University of Western Australia)

Abstract

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. Here, via individual-based modeling, we evaluate a large, multicountry, contemporary Plasmodium falciparum severe malaria dataset to better understand the relationship between prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations - a proxy of malaria severe outcomes- in East-Africa. We find that life-long exposure dynamics, and subsequent protection patterns in children, substantially determine the likelihood of malaria hospitalizations relative to ongoing prevalence at the population level. Unsteady transmission patterns over a lifetime in children -increasing or decreasing- lead to an exponential relationship of hospitalization rates versus prevalence rather than the asymptotic pattern observed under steady transmission. Addressing this increase in the complexity of malaria epidemiology is crucial to update burden assessments via inference models that guide current and future policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo M. Salazar & Alice Kamau & Aurelien Cavelan & Samuel Akech & Arthur Mpimbaza & Robert W. Snow & Melissa A. Penny, 2024. "Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48191-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48191-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Theresa Reiker & Monica Golumbeanu & Andrew Shattock & Lydia Burgert & Thomas A. Smith & Sarah Filippi & Ewan Cameron & Melissa A. Penny, 2021. "Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
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