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Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift

Author

Listed:
  • Agnes B. Olin

    (Stockholm University
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Ulf Bergström

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Örjan Bodin

    (Stockholm University)

  • Göran Sundblad

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Britas Klemens Eriksson

    (University of Groningen)

  • Mårten Erlandsson

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Ronny Fredriksson

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Johan S. Eklöf

    (Stockholm University)

Abstract

Ecosystem regime shifts can have severe ecological and economic consequences, making it a top priority to understand how to make systems more resilient. Theory predicts that spatial connectivity and the local environment interact to shape resilience, but empirical studies are scarce. Here, we use >7000 fish samplings from the Baltic Sea coast to test this prediction in an ongoing, spatially propagating shift in dominance from predatory fish to an opportunistic mesopredator, with cascading effects throughout the food web. After controlling for the influence of other drivers (including increasing mesopredator densities), we find that predatory fish habitat connectivity increases resilience to the shift, but only when densities of fish-eating top predators (seals, cormorants) are low. Resilience also increases with temperature, likely through boosted predatory fish growth and recruitment. These findings confirm theoretical predictions that spatial connectivity and the local environment can together shape resilience to regime shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnes B. Olin & Ulf Bergström & Örjan Bodin & Göran Sundblad & Britas Klemens Eriksson & Mårten Erlandsson & Ronny Fredriksson & Johan S. Eklöf, 2024. "Predation and spatial connectivity interact to shape ecosystem resilience to an ongoing regime shift," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45713-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45713-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilkka Hanski, 1998. "Metapopulation dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 396(6706), pages 41-49, November.
    2. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    3. Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Biggs, Reinette & Polasky, Stephen & Troell, Max & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2012. "Regime shifts and management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 15-22.
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