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Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Hailey J. Park

    (Stanford University)

  • Gregg S. Gonsalves

    (Yale School of Public Health)

  • Sophia T. Tan

    (Stanford University)

  • J. Daniel Kelly

    (University of California, San Francisco
    San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center
    F.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
    University of California, San Francisco)

  • George W. Rutherford

    (University of California, San Francisco
    University of California, San Francisco)

  • Robert M. Wachter

    (University of California, San Francisco)

  • Robert Schechter

    (California Department of Public Health)

  • A. David Paltiel

    (Yale School of Public Health)

  • Nathan C. Lo

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

There is a public health need to understand how different frequencies of COVID-19 booster vaccines may mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19, while accounting for waning of protection and differential risk by age and immune status. By analyzing United States COVID-19 surveillance and seroprevalence data in a microsimulation model, here we show that more frequent COVID-19 booster vaccination (every 6–12 months) in older age groups and the immunocompromised population would effectively reduce the burden of severe COVID-19, while frequent boosters in the younger population may only provide modest benefit against severe disease. In persons 75+ years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce absolute annual risk of severe COVID-19 by 199 (uncertainty interval: 183–232) cases per 100,000 persons, compared to a one-time booster vaccination. In contrast, for persons 18–49 years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce this risk by 14 (10–19) cases per 100,000 persons. Those with prior infection had lower benefit of more frequent boosting, and immunocompromised persons had larger benefit. Scenarios with emerging variants with immune evasion increased the benefit of more frequent variant-targeted boosters. This study underscores the benefit of considering key risk factors to inform frequency of COVID-19 booster vaccines in public health guidance and ensuring at least annual boosters in high-risk populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailey J. Park & Gregg S. Gonsalves & Sophia T. Tan & J. Daniel Kelly & George W. Rutherford & Robert M. Wachter & Robert Schechter & A. David Paltiel & Nathan C. Lo, 2024. "Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45549-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45549-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stijn P. Andeweg & Brechje Gier & Dirk Eggink & Caroline Ende & Noortje Maarseveen & Lubna Ali & Boris Vlaemynck & Raf Schepers & Susan J. M. Hahné & Chantal B. E. M. Reusken & Hester E. Melker & Susa, 2022. "Protection of COVID-19 vaccination and previous infection against Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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    1. Stéphane Le Vu & Marion Bertrand & Laura Semenzato & Marie-Joelle Jabagi & Jérémie Botton & Jérôme Drouin & Alain Weill & Rosemary Dray-Spira & Mahmoud Zureik, 2024. "Influence of mRNA Covid-19 vaccine dosing interval on the risk of myocarditis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.

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