IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-023-44543-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse

Author

Listed:
  • Scott D. Ling

    (University of Tasmania)

  • John P. Keane

    (University of Tasmania)

Abstract

Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth’s poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning ‘incipient barrens’ are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott D. Ling & John P. Keane, 2024. "Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44543-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44543-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-44543-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
    2. Terry P. Hughes & James T. Kerry & Mariana Álvarez-Noriega & Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero & Kristen D. Anderson & Andrew H. Baird & Russell C. Babcock & Maria Beger & David R. Bellwood & Ray Berkelmans & T, 2017. "Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 373-377, March.
    3. Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasilis Dakos & Stephen R Carpenter & William A Brock & Aaron M Ellison & Vishwesha Guttal & Anthony R Ives & Sonia Kéfi & Valerie Livina & David A Seekell & Egbert H van Nes & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Zeng, Chunhua & Wang, Hua, 2012. "Noise and large time delay: Accelerated catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 52-58.
    3. Florian Wagener, 2013. "Shallow lake economics run deep: nonlinear aspects of an economic-ecological interest conflict," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 423-450, December.
    4. Kevin Thellmann & Marc Cotter & Sabine Baumgartner & Anna Treydte & Georg Cadisch & Folkard Asch, 2018. "Tipping Points in the Supply of Ecosystem Services of a Mountainous Watershed in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Ren, Bijie & Polasky, Stephen, 2014. "The optimal management of renewable resources under the risk of potential regime shift," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 195-212.
    6. Dmitry Gromov & Thorsten Upmann, 2021. "Dynamics and Economics of Shallow Lakes: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Biggs, Reinette & Polasky, Stephen & Troell, Max & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2012. "Regime shifts and management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 15-22.
    8. William A Brock & Stephen R Carpenter, 2012. "Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-10, September.
    9. Tatiana Baumuratova & Simona Dobre & Thierry Bastogne & Thomas Sauter, 2013. "Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Zejie Zhou & Boleslaw K Szymanski & Jianxi Gao, 2020. "Modeling competitive evolution of multiple languages," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, May.
    11. de Zeeuw, Aart, 2017. "Integrating Economics and the Environment," Other publications TiSEM 8c8f2f81-5797-4429-9066-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Steven J. Lade & Alessandro Tavoni & Simon A. Levin & Maja Schl�ter, 2013. "Regime shifts in a social-ecological system," GRI Working Papers 105, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    13. Krishnadas M. & K. P. Harikrishnan & G. Ambika, 2022. "Recurrence measures and transitions in stock market dynamics," Papers 2208.03456, arXiv.org.
    14. Kiran D’Souza & Bogdan I Epureanu & Mercedes Pascual, 2015. "Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Lumi, Neeme & Laas, Katrin & Mankin, Romi, 2015. "Rising relative fluctuation as a warning indicator of discontinuous transitions in symbiotic metapopulations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 109-118.
    16. Georg Jäger & Manfred Füllsack, 2019. "Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
    17. William Lopes & Daniel R. Amor & Jeff Gore, 2024. "Cooperative growth in microbial communities is a driver of multistability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Bian, Junhao & Ma, Zhiqin & Wang, Chunping & Huang, Tao & Zeng, Chunhua, 2024. "Early warning for spatial ecological system: Fractal dimension and deep learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
    19. Acosta-Arreola, Jaime & Domínguez-Hüttinger, Elisa & Aguirre, Pablo & González, Nicolás & Meave, Jorge A., 2023. "Predicting dynamic trajectories of a protected plant community under contrasting conservation regimes: Insights from data-based modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    20. Andrea Taramelli & Emiliana Valentini & Laura Piedelobo & Margherita Righini & Sergio Cappucci, 2021. "Assessment of State Transition Dynamics of Coastal Wetlands in Northern Venice Lagoon, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44543-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.