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Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

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Listed:
  • Felipe J. Colón-González

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    University of East Anglia)

  • Rory Gibb

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Kamran Khan

    (University of Toronto
    BlueDot)

  • Alexander Watts

    (BlueDot
    Esri Canada)

  • Rachel Lowe

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC))

  • Oliver J. Brady

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe J. Colón-González & Rory Gibb & Kamran Khan & Alexander Watts & Rachel Lowe & Oliver J. Brady, 2023. "Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-41017-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41017-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    2. Filippo Simini & Marta C. González & Amos Maritan & Albert-László Barabási, 2012. "A universal model for mobility and migration patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7392), pages 96-100, April.
    3. Hai-Yan Xu & Xiuju Fu & Lionel Kim Hock Lee & Stefan Ma & Kee Tai Goh & Jiancheng Wong & Mohamed Salahuddin Habibullah & Gary Kee Khoon Lee & Tian Kuay Lim & Paul Anantharajah Tambyah & Chin Leong Lim, 2014. "Statistical Modeling Reveals the Effect of Absolute Humidity on Dengue in Singapore," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoxuan Zhang & John Gibson, 2024. "How well do gridded population estimates proxy for actual population changes? Evidence from four gridded data products and three censuses for China," Working Papers in Economics 24/07, University of Waikato.

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