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No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data

Author

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  • Kimberly M. Fornace

    (University of Glasgow
    National University of
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Hillary M. Topazian

    (Imperial College London)

  • Isobel Routledge

    (Imperial College London
    University of California, San Francisco)

  • Syafie Asyraf

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Jenarun Jelip

    (Ministry of Health Malaysia)

  • Kim A. Lindblade

    (World Health Organization)

  • Mohammad Saffree Jeffree

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Pablo Ruiz Cuenca

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Samir Bhatt

    (Imperial College London
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Kamruddin Ahmed

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Azra C. Ghani

    (Imperial College London)

  • Chris Drakeley

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate RC, individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (RC 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in RC estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly M. Fornace & Hillary M. Topazian & Isobel Routledge & Syafie Asyraf & Jenarun Jelip & Kim A. Lindblade & Mohammad Saffree Jeffree & Pablo Ruiz Cuenca & Samir Bhatt & Kamruddin Ahmed & Azra C., 2023. "No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38476-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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