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Plastic waste discharge to the global ocean constrained by seawater observations

Author

Listed:
  • Yanxu Zhang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Peipei Wu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Ruochong Xu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xuantong Wang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Lili Lei

    (Nanjing University)

  • Amina T. Schartup

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Yiming Peng

    (Nanjing University)

  • Qiaotong Pang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xinle Wang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Lei Mai

    (Jinan University)

  • Ruwei Wang

    (Jinan University)

  • Huan Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Xiaotong Wang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Arjen Luijendijk

    (Delft University of Technology
    Hydraulic Engineering, Deltares)

  • Eric Chassignet

    (Florida State University)

  • Xiaobiao Xu

    (Florida State University)

  • Huizhong Shen

    (Southern University of Science and Technology)

  • Shuxiu Zheng

    (Peking University)

  • Eddy Y. Zeng

    (Jinan University)

Abstract

Marine plastic pollution poses a potential threat to the ecosystem, but the sources and their magnitudes remain largely unclear. Existing bottom-up emission inventories vary among studies for two to three orders of magnitudes (OMs). Here, we adopt a top-down approach that uses observed dataset of sea surface plastic concentrations and an ensemble of ocean transport models to reduce the uncertainty of global plastic discharge. The optimal estimation of plastic emissions in this study varies about 1.5 OMs: 0.70 (0.13–3.8 as a 95% confidence interval) million metric tons yr−1 at the present day. We find that the variability of surface plastic abundance caused by different emission inventories is higher than that caused by model parameters. We suggest that more accurate emission inventories, more data for the abundance in the seawater and other compartments, and more accurate model parameters are required to further reduce the uncertainty of our estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanxu Zhang & Peipei Wu & Ruochong Xu & Xuantong Wang & Lili Lei & Amina T. Schartup & Yiming Peng & Qiaotong Pang & Xinle Wang & Lei Mai & Ruwei Wang & Huan Liu & Xiaotong Wang & Arjen Luijendijk & E, 2023. "Plastic waste discharge to the global ocean constrained by seawater observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37108-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37108-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurent Lebreton & Anthony Andrady, 2019. "Future scenarios of global plastic waste generation and disposal," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-11, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maryna Strokal & Paul Vriend & Mirjam P. Bak & Carolien Kroeze & Jikke Wijnen & Tim Emmerik, 2023. "River export of macro- and microplastics to seas by sources worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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