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The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

Author

Listed:
  • Beata Latos

    (Polish Academy of Sciences)

  • Philippe Peyrillé

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Thierry Lefort

    (École Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France)

  • Dariusz B. Baranowski

    (Polish Academy of Sciences)

  • Maria K. Flatau

    (Naval Research Laboratory)

  • Piotr J. Flatau

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Nelly Florida Riama

    (Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG))

  • Donaldi S. Permana

    (Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG))

  • Adam V. Rydbeck

    (Stennis Space Center)

  • Adrian J. Matthews

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land, and the strongest one in such close proximity to Timor Island. In April 2021 Seroja brought historic flooding to near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor, as well as impacting Western Australia. Here we show that the unusual near-equatorial cyclogenesis in close proximity to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions. Specifically, this was associated with enhanced equatorial convection on the leading edge of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. Within the MJO, the interaction between a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and two convectively coupled Kelvin waves span up the initial vortex and accelerated cyclogenesis. On average, such favorable atmospheric conditions can occur once per year. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of tropical cyclones over the Maritime Continent.

Suggested Citation

  • Beata Latos & Philippe Peyrillé & Thierry Lefort & Dariusz B. Baranowski & Maria K. Flatau & Piotr J. Flatau & Nelly Florida Riama & Donaldi S. Permana & Adam V. Rydbeck & Adrian J. Matthews, 2023. "The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36498-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36498-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dariusz B. Baranowski & Maria K. Flatau & Piotr J. Flatau & Dwikorita Karnawati & Katarzyna Barabasz & Michal Labuz & Beata Latos & Jerome M. Schmidt & Jaka A. I. Paski & Marzuki, 2020. "Social-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Sujata K. Mandke & A. K. Sahai, 2016. "Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2211-2224, December.
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    1. Audrey Faral & Franck Lavigne & Wayan Jarrah Sastrawan & I Gede Putu Eka Suryana & Alicia Schrikker & Made Pageh & Atmaja Dewa Made & Made Windu Antara Kesiman & Mukhamad Ngainul Malawani & Danang Sri, 2024. "Deadliest natural disaster in Balinese history in November 1815 revealed by Western and Indonesian written sources," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(13), pages 12011-12041, October.

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