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Social-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra

Author

Listed:
  • Dariusz B. Baranowski

    (Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences)

  • Maria K. Flatau

    (Naval Research Laboratory)

  • Piotr J. Flatau

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Dwikorita Karnawati

    (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG))

  • Katarzyna Barabasz

    (Collegium Civitas)

  • Michal Labuz

    (Michal Labuz)

  • Beata Latos

    (Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences)

  • Jerome M. Schmidt

    (Naval Research Laboratory)

  • Jaka A. I. Paski

    (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of the Republic of Indonesia (BMKG))

  • Marzuki

    (Andalas University, Jl. Universitas Andalas)

Abstract

Floods are a major contributor to natural disasters in Sumatra. However, atmospheric conditions leading to floods are not well understood due, among other factors, to the lack of a complete record of floods. Here, the 5 year flood record for Sumatra derived from governmental reports, as well as from crowd-sourcing data, based on Twitter messages and local newspapers’ reports, is created and used to analyze atmospheric phenomena responsible for floods. It is shown, that for the majority of analyzed floods, convectively coupled Kelvin waves, large scale precipitation systems propagating at ∼12 m/s along the equator, play the critical role. While seasonal and intraseasonal variability can also create conditions favorable for flooding, the enhanced precipitation related to Kelvin waves was found in over 90% of flood events. In 30% of these events precipitation anomalies were attributed to Kelvin waves only. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of flood risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Dariusz B. Baranowski & Maria K. Flatau & Piotr J. Flatau & Dwikorita Karnawati & Katarzyna Barabasz & Michal Labuz & Beata Latos & Jerome M. Schmidt & Jaka A. I. Paski & Marzuki, 2020. "Social-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-16171-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16171-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Erokhin & Nadejda Komendantova, 2024. "Earthquake conspiracy discussion on Twitter," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Zhenjie Liu & Jun Li & Haonan Chen & Lizhe Wang & Jun Yang & Antonio Plaza, 2024. "Prediction of changes in war-induced population and CO2 emissions in Ukraine using social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Beata Latos & Philippe Peyrillé & Thierry Lefort & Dariusz B. Baranowski & Maria K. Flatau & Piotr J. Flatau & Nelly Florida Riama & Donaldi S. Permana & Adam V. Rydbeck & Adrian J. Matthews, 2023. "The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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