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Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Zoë K. Mildon

    (University of Plymouth)

  • Gerald P. Roberts

    (University of London)

  • Joanna P. Faure Walker

    (University College London)

  • Joakim Beck

    (4700 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST))

  • Ioannis Papanikolaou

    (Agricultural University of Athens)

  • Alessandro M. Michetti

    (Università degli Studi dell’Insubria
    Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano)

  • Shinji Toda

    (Tohoku University)

  • Francesco Iezzi

    (University of Naples “Federico II”)

  • Lucy Campbell

    (University of Hull)

  • Kenneth J. W. McCaffrey

    (University of Durham)

  • Richard Shanks

    (Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre)

  • Claudia Sgambato

    (University of London)

  • Jennifer Robertson

    (University of London)

  • Marco Meschis

    (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo)

  • Eutizio Vittori

    (CNR, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources)

Abstract

Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoë K. Mildon & Gerald P. Roberts & Joanna P. Faure Walker & Joakim Beck & Ioannis Papanikolaou & Alessandro M. Michetti & Shinji Toda & Francesco Iezzi & Lucy Campbell & Kenneth J. W. McCaffrey & Ric, 2022. "Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34821-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34821-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Cisternas & Brian F. Atwater & Fernando Torrejón & Yuki Sawai & Gonzalo Machuca & Marcelo Lagos & Annaliese Eipert & Cristián Youlton & Ignacio Salgado & Takanobu Kamataki & Masanobu Shishikura , 2005. "Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7057), pages 404-407, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Billi & Fabio Corbi & Marco Cuffaro & Barbara Orecchio & Mimmo Palano & Debora Presti & Cristina Totaro, 2024. "Seismic slip channeling along the East Anatolian Fault illuminates long-term supercycle behavior," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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