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Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Edyth Parker

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Catelyn Anderson

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Mark Zeller

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Ahmad Tibi

    (Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories)

  • Jennifer L. Havens

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Geneviève Laroche

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Mehdi Benlarbi

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Ardeshir Ariana

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Refugio Robles-Sikisaka

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Alaa Abdel Latif

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Alexander Watts

    (Bluedot)

  • Abdalla Awidi

    (The University of Jordan
    The University of Jordan)

  • Saied A. Jaradat

    (Jordan University of Science and Technology)

  • Karthik Gangavarapu

    (David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Karthik Ramesh

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Ezra Kurzban

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Nathaniel L. Matteson

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Alvin X. Han

    (University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Infection and Immunity)

  • Laura D. Hughes

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Michelle McGraw

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Emily Spencer

    (Scripps Research Translational Institute)

  • Laura Nicholson

    (Scripps Research Translational Institute)

  • Kamran Khan

    (Bluedot)

  • Marc A. Suchard

    (David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles
    Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Joel O. Wertheim

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Shirlee Wohl

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Marceline Côté

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Amid Abdelnour

    (Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories)

  • Kristian G. Andersen

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Issa Abu-Dayyeh

    (Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories
    The University of Jordan)

Abstract

Regional connectivity and land travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the travel restrictions period. We show that land travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the travel restrictions period. High regional connectivity and land travel also drove Jordan’s export risk. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land travel as drivers of transmission in the Middle East.

Suggested Citation

  • Edyth Parker & Catelyn Anderson & Mark Zeller & Ahmad Tibi & Jennifer L. Havens & Geneviève Laroche & Mehdi Benlarbi & Ardeshir Ariana & Refugio Robles-Sikisaka & Alaa Abdel Latif & Alexander Watts & , 2022. "Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32536-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32536-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordan Douglas & David Winter & Andrea McNeill & Sam Carr & Michael Bunce & Nigel French & James Hadfield & Joep Ligt & David Welch & Jemma L. Geoghegan, 2022. "Tracing the international arrivals of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants after Aotearoa New Zealand reopened its border," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Idowu B. Olawoye & Paul E. Oluniyi & Judith U. Oguzie & Jessica N. Uwanibe & Tolulope A. Kayode & Testimony J. Olumade & Fehintola V. Ajogbasile & Edyth Parker & Philomena E. Eromon & Priscilla Abechi, 2023. "Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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