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Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study

Author

Listed:
  • Peter D. Kirwan

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Andre Charlett

    (UK Health Security Agency)

  • Paul Birrell

    (University of Cambridge
    UK Health Security Agency)

  • Suzanne Elgohari

    (UK Health Security Agency)

  • Russell Hope

    (UK Health Security Agency)

  • Sema Mandal

    (UK Health Security Agency)

  • Daniela Angelis

    (University of Cambridge
    UK Health Security Agency)

  • Anne M. Presanis

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Widespread vaccination campaigns have changed the landscape for COVID-19, vastly altering symptoms and reducing morbidity and mortality. We estimate trends in mortality by month of admission and vaccination status among those hospitalised with COVID-19 in England between March 2020 to September 2021, controlling for demographic factors and hospital load. Among 259,727 hospitalised COVID-19 cases, 51,948 (20.0%) experienced mortality in hospital. Hospitalised fatality risk ranged from 40.3% (95% confidence interval 39.4–41.3%) in March 2020 to 8.1% (7.2–9.0%) in June 2021. Older individuals and those with multiple co-morbidities were more likely to die or else experienced longer stays prior to discharge. Compared to unvaccinated people, the hazard of hospitalised mortality was 0.71 (0.67–0.77) with a first vaccine dose, and 0.56 (0.52–0.61) with a second vaccine dose. Compared to hospital load at 0–20% of the busiest week, the hazard of hospitalised mortality during periods of peak load (90–100%), was 1.23 (1.12–1.34). The prognosis for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England has varied substantially throughout the pandemic and according to case-mix, vaccination, and hospital load. Our estimates provide an indication for demands on hospital resources, and the relationship between hospital burden and outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter D. Kirwan & Andre Charlett & Paul Birrell & Suzanne Elgohari & Russell Hope & Sema Mandal & Daniela Angelis & Anne M. Presanis, 2022. "Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32458-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32458-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Catalan-Matamoros & Andrea Langbecker, 2023. "How Does the Public Receive Information about Vaccines during the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study in Spain," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-11, March.

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