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Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

Author

Listed:
  • Michael O’Sullivan

    (University of Exeter)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (University of Exeter
    Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X)

  • Stephen Sitch

    (University of Exeter)

  • Peter Anthoni

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research)

  • Almut Arneth

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research)

  • Vivek K. Arora

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Vladislav Bastrikov

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Christine Delire

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Daniel S. Goll

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Atul Jain

    (University of Illinois)

  • Etsushi Kato

    (Institute of Applied Energy (IAE))

  • Daniel Kennedy

    (Terrestrial Sciences Section)

  • Jürgen Knauer

    (Western Sydney University
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Sebastian Lienert

    (University of Bern)

  • Danica Lombardozzi

    (Terrestrial Sciences Section)

  • Patrick C. McGuire

    (University of Reading)

  • Joe R. Melton

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Julia E. M. S. Nabel

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Julia Pongratz

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Benjamin Poulter

    (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory)

  • Roland Séférian

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College)

  • Nicolas Vuichard

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Anthony P. Walker

    (Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab)

  • Wenping Yuan

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Xu Yue

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST))

  • Sönke Zaehle

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

Abstract

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael O’Sullivan & Pierre Friedlingstein & Stephen Sitch & Peter Anthoni & Almut Arneth & Vivek K. Arora & Vladislav Bastrikov & Christine Delire & Daniel S. Goll & Atul Jain & Etsushi Kato & Daniel, 2022. "Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32416-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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