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The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Arnald Puy

    (Princeton University
    University of Bergen)

  • Razi Sheikholeslami

    (University of Oxford
    Sharif University of Technology)

  • Hoshin V. Gupta

    (University of Arizona)

  • Jim W. Hall

    (University of Oxford)

  • Bruce Lankford

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Samuele Lo Piano

    (University of Reading)

  • Jonas Meier

    (German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD))

  • Florian Pappenberger

    (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Amilcare Porporato

    (Princeton University)

  • Giulia Vico

    (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Andrea Saltelli

    (University of Bergen
    UPF Barcelona School of Management)

Abstract

Miscalculating the volumes of water withdrawn for irrigation, the largest consumer of freshwater in the world, jeopardizes sustainable water management. Hydrological models quantify water withdrawals, but their estimates are unduly precise. Model imperfections need to be appreciated to avoid policy misjudgements.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnald Puy & Razi Sheikholeslami & Hoshin V. Gupta & Jim W. Hall & Bruce Lankford & Samuele Lo Piano & Jonas Meier & Florian Pappenberger & Amilcare Porporato & Giulia Vico & Andrea Saltelli, 2022. "The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-4, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30731-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30731-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnald Puy & Emanuele Borgonovo & Samuele Lo Piano & Simon A. Levin & Andrea Saltelli, 2021. "Irrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Wendy S. Parker, 2013. "Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 213-223, May.
    3. Andrea Saltelli & Gabriele Bammer & Isabelle Bruno & Erica Charters & Monica Di Fiore & Emmanuel Didier & Wendy Nelson Espeland & John Kay & Samuele Lo Piano & Deborah Mayo & Roger Pielke Jr & Tommaso, 2020. "Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7813), pages 482-484, June.
    4. Boelens, Rutgerd & Vos, Jeroen, 2012. "The danger of naturalizing water policy concepts: Water productivity and efficiency discourses from field irrigation to virtual water trade," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 16-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Sapino, Francesco & Hazimeh, Rim & Dionisio Pérez-Blanco, C. & Jaafar, Hadi H., 2024. "Socioeconomic impact of agricultural water reallocation policies in the Upper Litani Basin (Lebanon): a remote sensing and microeconomic ensemble forecasting approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    2. Anna Boser & Kelly Caylor & Ashley Larsen & Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell & John T. Reager & Tamma Carleton, 2024. "Field-scale crop water consumption estimates reveal potential water savings in California agriculture," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Ben Stewart-Koster & Stuart E. Bunn & Pamela Green & Christopher Ndehedehe & Lauren S. Andersen & David I. Armstrong McKay & Xuemei Bai & Fabrice DeClerck & Kristie L. Ebi & Christopher Gordon & Joyee, 2024. "Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 53-63, January.
    4. Lund, A.A. Rehman & Gates, Timothy K. & Scalia, Joseph, 2023. "Characterization and control of irrigation canal seepage losses: A review and perspective focused on field data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    5. Feng, Zhuangzhuang & Miao, Qingfeng & Shi, Haibin & Feng, Weiying & Li, Xianyue & Yan, Jianwen & Liu, Meihan & Sun, Wei & Dai, Liping & Liu, Jing, 2023. "Simulation of water balance and irrigation strategy of typical sand-layered farmland in the Hetao Irrigation District, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    6. Victoria Junquera & Daniel I. Rubenstein & Simon A. Levin & Jos'e I. Hormaza & I~naki Vadillo P'erez & Pablo Jim'enez Gavil'an, 2024. "Hydrological collapse in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: Meteorological, hydrological, and structural drought," Papers 2408.00683, arXiv.org.

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