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Economic shocks predict increases in child wasting prevalence

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  • Derek D. Headey

    (The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

  • Marie T. Ruel

    (The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

Abstract

In low and middle income countries macroeconomic volatility is common, and severe negative economic shocks can substantially increase poverty and food insecurity. Less well understood are the implications of these contractions for child acute malnutrition (wasting), a major risk factor for under-5 mortality. This study explores the nutritional impacts of economic growth shocks over 1990–2018 by linking wasting outcomes collected for 1.256 million children from 52 countries to lagged annual changes in economic growth. Estimates suggest that a 10% annual decline in national income increases moderate/severe wasting prevalence by 14.4–17.8%. An exploration of possible mechanisms suggests negative economic shocks may increase risks of inadequate dietary diversity among children. Applying these results to the latest economic growth estimates for 2020 suggests that COVID-19 could put an additional 9.4 million preschoolers at risk of wasting, net of the effects of preventative policy actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek D. Headey & Marie T. Ruel, 2022. "Economic shocks predict increases in child wasting prevalence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29755-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29755-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Derek Headey & Marie Ruel, 2023. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Ravi Bhavnani & Nina Schlager & Karsten Donnay & Mirko Reul & Laura Schenker & Maxime Stauffer & Tirtha Patel, 2023. "Household behavior and vulnerability to acute malnutrition in Kenya," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Liu, Xinghua & Liang, Yue & Chen, Kevin Z., 2024. "Dairy trade liberalization and child stunting: Evidence from low- and middle-income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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