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Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control

Author

Listed:
  • Alicia N. M. Kraay

    (Emory University)

  • Kristin N. Nelson

    (Emory University)

  • Conan Y. Zhao

    (Georgia Institute of Technology
    Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • David Demory

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Joshua S. Weitz

    (Georgia Institute of Technology
    Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Benjamin A. Lopman

    (Emory University)

Abstract

Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia N. M. Kraay & Kristin N. Nelson & Conan Y. Zhao & David Demory & Joshua S. Weitz & Benjamin A. Lopman, 2021. "Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26774-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26774-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Signorelli & Anna Odone, 2020. "Age-specific COVID-19 case-fatality rate: no evidence of changes over time," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 65(8), pages 1435-1436, November.
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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