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Nationwide rollout reveals efficacy of epidemic control through digital contact tracing

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Elmokashfi

    (Simula Metropolitan Center for Digital Engineering)

  • Joakim Sundnes

    (Simula Research Laboratory)

  • Amund Kvalbein

    (Simula Metropolitan Center for Digital Engineering)

  • Valeriya Naumova

    (Simula Metropolitan Center for Digital Engineering)

  • Sven-Arne Reinemo

    (Simula Metropolitan Center for Digital Engineering)

  • Per Magne Florvaag

    (Simula Research Laboratory)

  • Håkon Kvale Stensland

    (Simula Research Laboratory
    University of Oslo)

  • Olav Lysne

    (Simula Metropolitan Center for Digital Engineering
    Oslo Metropolitan University)

Abstract

Fuelled by epidemiological studies of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing by mobile phones has been put to use in many countries. Over a year into the pandemic, we lack conclusive evidence on its effectiveness. To address this gap, we used a unique real world contact data set, collected during the rollout of the first Norwegian contact tracing app in the Spring of 2020. Our dataset involves millions of contacts between 12.5% of the adult population, which enabled us to measure the real-world app performance. The technological tracing efficacy was measured at 80%, and we estimated that at least 11.0% of the discovered close contacts could not have been identified by manual contact tracing. Our results also indicated that digital contact tracing can flag individuals with excessive contacts, which can help contain superspreading related outbreaks. The overall effectiveness of digital tracing depends strongly on app uptake, but significant impact can be achieved for moderate uptake numbers. Used as a supplement to manual tracing and other measures, digital tracing can be instrumental in controlling the pandemic. Our findings can thus help informing public health policies in the coming months.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Elmokashfi & Joakim Sundnes & Amund Kvalbein & Valeriya Naumova & Sven-Arne Reinemo & Per Magne Florvaag & Håkon Kvale Stensland & Olav Lysne, 2021. "Nationwide rollout reveals efficacy of epidemic control through digital contact tracing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26144-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26144-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Makoto Niwa & Yeongjoo Lim & Shintaro Sengoku & Kota Kodama, 2022. "A Layered Adopter-Structure Model for the Download of COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: A System Dynamics Study for mHealth Penetration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Liu, Jielun & Ong, Ghim Ping & Pang, Vincent Junxiong, 2022. "Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 25-47.
    3. Stephan Ellmann & Markus Maryschok & Oliver Schöffski & Martin Emmert, 2022. "The German COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing App: A Socioeconomic Evaluation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.

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