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A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Sera

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    University of Florence)

  • Ben Armstrong

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Sam Abbott

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Sophie Meakin

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Kathleen O’Reilly

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Rosa Borries

    (Charité Universitätsmedizin)

  • Rochelle Schneider

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)
    European Space Agency)

  • Dominic Royé

    (University of Santiago de Compostela)

  • Masahiro Hashizume

    (Nagasaki University
    Nagasaki University
    The University of Tokyo)

  • Mathilde Pascal

    (French National Public Health Agency)

  • Aurelio Tobias

    (Nagasaki University
    Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIS))

  • Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • Antonio Gasparrini

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Rachel Lowe

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Barcelona Supercomputing Center)

Abstract

There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Sera & Ben Armstrong & Sam Abbott & Sophie Meakin & Kathleen O’Reilly & Rosa Borries & Rochelle Schneider & Dominic Royé & Masahiro Hashizume & Mathilde Pascal & Aurelio Tobias & Ana Maria V, 2021. "A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25914-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colin J. Carlson & Ana C. R. Gomez & Shweta Bansal & Sadie J. Ryan, 2020. "Misconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, December.
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