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Global increase in tropical cyclone rain rate

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  • Oscar Guzman

    (Florida International University)

  • Haiyan Jiang

    (Florida International University)

Abstract

Theoretical models of the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) suggest that TC rainfall rates should increase in a warmer environment but limited observational evidence has been studied to test these hypotheses on a global scale. The present study explores the general trends of TC rainfall rates based on a 19-year (1998–2016) time series of continuous observational data collected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Overall, observations exhibit an increasing trend in the average TC rainfall rate of about 1.3% per year, a fact that is contributed mainly by the combined effect of the reduction in the inner-core rainfall rate with the increase in rainfall rate on the rainband region. We found that the increasing trend is more pronounced in the Northwestern Pacific and North Atlantic than in other global basins, and it is relatively uniform for all TC intensities. Further analysis shows that these trends are associated with increases in sea surface temperature and total precipitable water in the TC environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Guzman & Haiyan Jiang, 2021. "Global increase in tropical cyclone rain rate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25685-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25685-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Satya Prakash & S. C. Bhan, 2023. "Assessment of INSAT-3D-derived high-resolution real-time precipitation products for North Indian Ocean cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 993-1009, January.
    2. Vijay Vishwakarma & Sandeep Pattnaik, 2022. "Role of large-scale and microphysical precipitation efficiency on rainfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1585-1608, November.
    3. Fang, Zhou & Liao, Shengli & Cheng, Chuntian & Zhao, Hongye & Liu, Benxi & Su, Huaying, 2023. "Parallel improved DPSA algorithm for medium-term optimal scheduling of large-scale cascade hydropower plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 134-147.
    4. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Shifei Tu & Johnny C. L. Chan & Jianjun Xu & Quanjia Zhong & Wen Zhou & Yu Zhang, 2022. "Increase in tropical cyclone rain rate with translation speed," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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