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Community factors and excess mortality in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Author

Listed:
  • Bethan Davies

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

  • Brandon L. Parkes

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

  • James Bennett

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

  • Daniela Fecht

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

  • Marta Blangiardo

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

  • Majid Ezzati

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London)

  • Paul Elliott

    (Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
    Imperial College London, Norfolk Place)

Abstract

Risk factors for increased risk of death from COVID-19 have been identified, but less is known on characteristics that make communities resilient or vulnerable to the mortality impacts of the pandemic. We applied a two-stage Bayesian spatial model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level during the first wave of the pandemic in England, March-May 2020 compared with 2015–2019. Here we show that communities with an increased risk of excess mortality had a high density of care homes, and/or high proportion of residents on income support, living in overcrowded homes and/or with a non-white ethnicity. We found no association between population density or air pollution and excess mortality. Effective and timely public health and healthcare measures that target the communities at greatest risk are urgently needed to avoid further widening of inequalities in mortality patterns as the pandemic progresses.

Suggested Citation

  • Bethan Davies & Brandon L. Parkes & James Bennett & Daniela Fecht & Marta Blangiardo & Majid Ezzati & Paul Elliott, 2021. "Community factors and excess mortality in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23935-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23935-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Burlina & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2024. "Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 263-284, February.
    2. Lin Chen & Fengli Xu & Zhenyu Han & Kun Tang & Pan Hui & James Evans & Yong Li, 2022. "Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1503-1514, November.
    3. Van Niekerk, Janet & Krainski, Elias & Rustand, Denis & Rue, Håvard, 2023. "A new avenue for Bayesian inference with INLA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    4. Johanna Eklund & Julia P. G. Jones & Matti Räsänen & Jonas Geldmann & Ari-Pekka Jokinen & Adam Pellegrini & Domoina Rakotobe & O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo & Tuuli Toivonen & Andrew Balmford, 2022. "Elevated fires during COVID-19 lockdown and the vulnerability of protected areas," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 603-609, July.
    5. Matthew Whitaker & Joshua Elliott & Marc Chadeau-Hyam & Steven Riley & Ara Darzi & Graham Cooke & Helen Ward & Paul Elliott, 2022. "Persistent COVID-19 symptoms in a community study of 606,434 people in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Mikolai, Júlia & Dorey, Peter & Keenan, Katherine & Kulu, Hill, 2023. "Spatial patterns of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality across waves of infection in England, Wales, and Scotland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).

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