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Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Evan Miles

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

  • Michael McCarthy

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council)

  • Amaury Dehecq

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology, ETH Zurich)

  • Marin Kneib

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich)

  • Stefan Fugger

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich)

  • Francesca Pellicciotti

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
    Northumbria University)

Abstract

Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000–2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21st century warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Miles & Michael McCarthy & Amaury Dehecq & Marin Kneib & Stefan Fugger & Francesca Pellicciotti, 2021. "Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23073-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23073-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Taigang Zhang & Weicai Wang & Baosheng An & Lele Wei, 2023. "Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Shuchang Tang & Anouk Vlug & Shilong Piao & Fei Li & Tao Wang & Gerhard Krinner & Laurent Z. X. Li & Xuhui Wang & Guangjian Wu & Yue Li & Yuan Zhang & Xu Lian & Tandong Yao, 2023. "Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Jianping Yang & Yanxia Wang & Fan Tang & Xinyu Guo & Hongju Chen & Guangxi Ding, 2023. "Ice-and-snow tourism in China: trends and influencing factors," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.

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