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Longitudinal analysis of blood markers reveals progressive loss of resilience and predicts human lifespan limit

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  • Timothy V. Pyrkov

    (Gero PTE)

  • Konstantin Avchaciov

    (Gero PTE)

  • Andrei E. Tarkhov

    (Gero PTE
    Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology
    Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny)

  • Leonid I. Menshikov

    (Gero PTE
    National Research Center ‘Kurchatov Institute’)

  • Andrei V. Gudkov

    (Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Elm and Carlton streets
    Genome Protection, Inc.)

  • Peter O. Fedichev

    (Gero PTE
    Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny)

Abstract

We investigated the dynamic properties of the organism state fluctuations along individual aging trajectories in a large longitudinal database of CBC measurements from a consumer diagnostics laboratory. To simplify the analysis, we used a log-linear mortality estimate from the CBC variables as a single quantitative measure of the aging process, henceforth referred to as dynamic organism state indicator (DOSI). We observed, that the age-dependent population DOSI distribution broadening could be explained by a progressive loss of physiological resilience measured by the DOSI auto-correlation time. Extrapolation of this trend suggested that DOSI recovery time and variance would simultaneously diverge at a critical point of 120 − 150 years of age corresponding to a complete loss of resilience. The observation was immediately confirmed by the independent analysis of correlation properties of intraday physical activity levels fluctuations collected by wearable devices. We conclude that the criticality resulting in the end of life is an intrinsic biological property of an organism that is independent of stress factors and signifies a fundamental or absolute limit of human lifespan.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy V. Pyrkov & Konstantin Avchaciov & Andrei E. Tarkhov & Leonid I. Menshikov & Andrei V. Gudkov & Peter O. Fedichev, 2021. "Longitudinal analysis of blood markers reveals progressive loss of resilience and predicts human lifespan limit," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23014-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23014-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Xiao & Li, Weimin & Yang, Bing & Li, Xiaorong & Chen, Jie & Fu, Guohua, 2023. "Deviation distance entropy: A method for quantifying the dynamic features of biomedical time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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