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Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph D. Challenger

    (Imperial College London)

  • Daniela Olivera Mesa

    (Imperial College London)

  • Dari F. Da

    (Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé)

  • R. Serge Yerbanga

    (Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé
    Institut des Sciences et Techniques)

  • Thierry Lefèvre

    (MIVEGEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD
    Centre de Recherche en Écologie et Évolution de la Santé (CREES))

  • Anna Cohuet

    (MIVEGEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD)

  • Thomas S. Churcher

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to translate the laboratory-estimated activity into an estimated activity in the field. A transmission dynamics model is then utilised to predict a transmission-blocking vaccine’s public health impact alongside existing interventions. The model suggests that school-aged children are an attractive population to target for vaccination. Benefits of vaccination are distributed across the population, averting the greatest number of cases in younger children. Utilising a transmission-blocking vaccine alongside existing interventions could have a substantial impact against malaria.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph D. Challenger & Daniela Olivera Mesa & Dari F. Da & R. Serge Yerbanga & Thierry Lefèvre & Anna Cohuet & Thomas S. Churcher, 2021. "Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21775-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21775-3
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