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Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

Author

Listed:
  • Jinping Wang

    (Ocean University of China
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • John A. Church

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Xuebin Zhang

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Xianyao Chen

    (Ocean University of China)

Abstract

The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinping Wang & John A. Church & Xuebin Zhang & Xianyao Chen, 2021. "Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21265-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2024. "Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1-27.
    2. Kristof Dorau & Tim Mansfeldt, 2023. "Vulnerability of diked marsh ecosystems under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-16, March.

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