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Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Di Domenico

    (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health)

  • Giulia Pullano

    (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
    Sociology and Economics of Network and Services (SENSE))

  • Chiara E. Sabbatini

    (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health)

  • Pierre-Yves Boëlle

    (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health)

  • Vittoria Colizza

    (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
    Institute of Innovative Research, Tokyo Institute of Technology)

Abstract

As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children’s role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Di Domenico & Giulia Pullano & Chiara E. Sabbatini & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Vittoria Colizza, 2021. "Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21249-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21249-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2022. "All or nothing? Partial business shutdowns and COVID-19 fatality growth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Benjamin Faucher & Rania Assab & Jonathan Roux & Daniel Levy-Bruhl & Cécile Tran Kiem & Simon Cauchemez & Laura Zanetti & Vittoria Colizza & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Chiara Poletto, 2022. "Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Davide Tosi & Alessandro Siro Campi, 2021. "How Schools Affected the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy: Data Analysis for Lombardy Region, Campania Region, and Emilia Region," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Sylvia Richardson, 2022. "Statistics in times of increasing uncertainty," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1471-1496, October.
    5. Mattia Mazzoli & Riccardo Gallotti & Filippo Privitera & Pere Colet & José J. Ramasco, 2023. "Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Bekolo Ngoa Celestin & Tchouchu Emmanuel & Ekoto Eugene Christian & Surapong Ngamsom & Kouame Dangui Dorcas & Agyemang Rama, 2022. "Psychometric Properties (Measurement Invariance and Latent Mean Difference across Gender) of the Learning Transfer Inventory System (LTIS) to Assess Thai Teachers’ Learning Transfer of COVID-19 Preven," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Benjamin Faucher & Chiara E. Sabbatini & Peter Czuppon & Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Philippe Lemey & Vittoria Colizza & François Blanquart & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Chiara Poletto, 2024. "Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Nan Li & Muzi Chen & Difang Huang, 2022. "How Do Logistics Disruptions Affect Rural Households? Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Kozhaya, Mireille, 2022. "The double burden: The impact of school closures on labor force participation of mothers," Ruhr Economic Papers 956, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Nahia Idoiaga & Idoia Legorburu & Naiara Ozamiz-Etxebarria & Darren M. Lipnicki & Beatriz Villagrasa & Javier Santabárbara, 2022. "Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in University Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Meta-Analysis Attending SDG 3 and 4 of the 2030 Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-12, June.
    11. Saverio Caini & Chiara Martinoli & Carlo La Vecchia & Sara Raimondi & Federica Bellerba & Oriana D’Ecclesiis & Clementina Sasso & Alessandra Basso & Giulio Cammarata & Sara Gandini, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Circulation in the School Setting: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-13, April.

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